Wednesday, March 27, 2024

The Davis Vanguard Wants to Sacramentorment Davis Housing

(c) by Mark Dempsey

Editor David Greenwald's recent Davis Vanguard commentary "Housing Production Continues to Fall Well Short" is critical of Davis, but--bizarrely--touts Sacramento as the housing producer to emulate. Greenwald also wants less multi-family housing, and more single-family homes in Davis. Sacramento is still well short of the housing production goals it proposes by half or less, but it builds far more single-family housing. Wisely, I say, Davis builds almost none.

Davis is almost out of infill to develop, says Greenwald. He doesn't mention the Sacramento region has 20 years worth of unbuilt infill and yet continues to approve outlying development, which, in turn, means longer CO2-emitting commutes and roughly twice the maintenance costs of infill development. 

Greenwald also does not mention the density--according to Berkeley planner Robert Cervero--needed to have working transit rather than long single-occupant car commutes. That density is roughly eleven units per acre at the lower bound--approximately that of the least dense attached dwellings, duplexes. Typical suburban neighborhoods don't have enough residents to support neighborhood commerce, or enough potential riders to support a bus stop. But we must have more single-family homes!

Incidentally, the most valuable real estate in the Sacramento region is pedestrian-friendly, mixed-use (residences, offices, commerce, etc.) McKinley Park. Buyers favor a neighborhood roughly twice as dense as most single-family developments, yet the Sacramento region builds precious few such neighborhoods.

Worse still, if locals build at lower densities than eleven units per acre, development consumes more land and favors the Central Valley's big business: land speculation.

Davis doesn't favor land speculators, but Sacramento does. In fact, the City approved the poster child for bad development: North Natomas. Before it was built out, North Natomas was a twenty-foot-under-water agricultural floodplain surrounded by weak levees. It was so notoriously unsuitable for development that a federal grant to increase regional sewer capacity contained a $6 million penalty if that additional capacity served North Natomas.

The speculators didn't fret. They went all the way to then-vice-president G.H.W. Bush and got that prohibitive, up-front $6 million penalty transformed into a more palatable pay-as-you-develop fee. Oh yes, and they also got $43 million in grants to bring those substandard levees surrounding North Natomas up to pre-Katrina standards.

Pay $6 in installments, and get $43! Where do I sign? But wait, there's more!

The speculators bought, or more likely optioned, that ag land for roughly $2,000 an acre. Once they received permission to break up those 40 and 80-acre agricultural minimums for residential/commercial/industrial uses, they sold at least some of it to builders for roughly 100 times more. So...a 10,000% profit! Wow! But wait, there's more!

If the speculators exchange their land, once it has that value-added entitlement to develop, for some income-producing property like apartments or shopping centers, they defer income tax on that egregious profit indefinitely. So...10,000% profit, tax-free!

These policies still cost North Natomas residents. The levees had to be upgraded after Hurricane Katrina proved they might be inadequate, but the speculators were long gone, so the North Natomas homeowners have to pay more money in their property taxes to shore up those levees.

There are alternatives to these speculator-happy policies. Curitiba Brazil embraced one. The city bought the floodplain and turned it into parks. Curitiba is not rich, so they also unleashed the municipal sheep to keep the lawns trimmed. Still, a poor city got large parks, and doesn't have maintain levees.

Another alternative is what Germany does. Those proposing outlying development must sell the land at the agricultural land price to the local government, then purchase it back at the upzoned price. The entire "unearned increment" (that 10,000% profit) benefits the public. And public amenities in Germany are very nice indeed. Unlike the US, where engineers grade our infrastructure a stunning "D+," German infrastructure is in good shape. Of course, they have single-payer healthcare, but they also offer higher education without tuition, even for non-native Germans. The arts budget for just the City of Berlin exceeds the US of A's National Endowment for the Arts.

Meanwhile, from another story about the future of Sacramento's housing: "Building this [higher] density in proximity to high-frequency transit hubs … prioritizing infill development, that’s really where we’re gonna see us achieving housing affordability." You mean...like Davis?

So...I'd suggest Mr. Greenwald find some other jurisdictions to admire when it comes to housing policies. Sacramento has a long way to go before it can do as well, or as sustainably as Davis.



Thursday, March 21, 2024

The US is addicted to militarized Keynsian stimulus

Here's an interesting take on capitalism as a support for huge military budgets: Marx observed that real, competitive capitalism tends to drive profits downward. We can't have that! So, unproductive military spending is one answer. I'd call it a stupid answer, but it would have to rise several levels before it reached stupid.... but that's what we have.

Meanwhile, military contractors have spread their operations out so many states' employment depends on them. A job guarantee could address this political maneuver, but until there's something to deal with out-of-work defense plant employees (and fossil fuel workers) we're going to be stuck with big military budgets (and many coal mines).

The latest Copaganda on retail theft

 

Wednesday, March 20, 2024

Nice! Robot Weeder

 

Sunday, March 17, 2024

A quick review of the "Dune 2" sequel

(Full disclosure: My wife and son loved Dune, but hey, they're drama queens. And yes, I read the book. Not my cup of tea then, either.)

My take: If you want to spend nearly three hours watching dark, depressing landscapes, with dark, simple-minded, depressing mood music behind it, and not even the tiniest bit of levity, or humor...this is the movie for you. 

Oh yes, and don't forget: planet Arrakis has gigantic worms that make "spice"--a drug that allows you to see into the future (essential for interstellar travel)! But you're supposed to already know this.

And sure, every desert creature on earth is small because the hot sand doesn't provide much to eat, but heck, this is fiction, so all bets are off. Still, the gigantic worms were a blow to my willing suspension of disbelief. Sand is apparently a gigantic worm super-highway--they zip to and fro, sometimes with riders and cargo. Never disclosed: How do they load the cargo, and how do they dismount? I'd call that a plot hole you could drive a gigantic worm through.

So ... the movie itself hit me with an audible "thud"--like that anvil that plagues Wile-E-Coyote--and simply did not impress at all as entertainment. I actually love some of the cast. In Guardians of the Galaxy Dave Bautista masterfully and hilariously plays Drax the Destroyer but he's wasted as Glossu Raban (a bad guy) in Dune 2. In Guardians, he's delightfully clueless. In Dune 2, he's just clueless.

If you want palace intrigue, like Dune 2 attempts to explore, go to Youtube and watch The Story of Yanxi Palace (Chinese with subtitles). It's ten times more clever than Dune (the book or the movie) and has a spunky heroine to boot.

In summary: Two thumbs down. Oh, and I'm disappointed in myself, too -- some people (like me) never learn. Dune 1 was, if anything, worse.

The Davis Vanguard Wants to Sacramentorment Davis Housing

(c) by Mark Dempsey Editor David Greenwald's recent Davis Vanguard commentary " Housing Production Continues to Fall Well Short &qu...