SoCal Wildfires and Floods are coming to Sacramento

(c) by Mark Dempsey

"Developers and real estate interests crushed efforts to limit development in high-wildfire-risk areas — including in L.A. neighborhoods now in ashes...The California Building Industry Association has also advocated, sometimes successfully, for weaker wildfire safety standards. The industry pushed a bill through the state Senate last year that would have abolished the state’s current fire-risk classification system entirely, in favor of more limited “mitigation” zones. Though the effort has stalled, the weaker approach had the support of Democratic Gov. Gavin Newsom.." (from here)

"It's widely acknowledged throughout the state that the Sacramento region is the most in the hip pocket of developers in California" - former Sacramento County Supervisor, Grantland Johnson.

Many people are distraught about the fires in Southern California, but the cause--building too many homes in environmentally dangerous areas--is widespread. Here in Sacramento--the second most flood-prone area in the US after New Orleans--building on floodplain is an established fact. 

The North Natomas basin was agricultural floodplain so unsuited for development that when the region got a federal grant to expand sewage treatment, one of its conditions was that the additional capacity not be used to serve North Natomas, or Sacramento would pay a six million dollar penalty.

The developers (really land speculators) didn't bat an eye. They went all the way to then-vice-president George H.W. Bush and got that prohibitive up-front penatly payable in installments, and (bonus!) got $43 million in levee improvement grants to bring the surrounding levees up to pre-hurricane-Katrina standards.

That's already a pretty good deal--pay $6 in installments to get $43--but wait, there's more! The speculators bought, or more likely optioned, that North Natomas land at roughly $2,000 an acre, and after they received permission to develop, sold it to builders for $200,000 an acre. If your calculator's not handy, that's a 10,000% profit. 

But wait, there's more! If the speculators exchange their newly profitable land for income-producing property like shopping centers and apartments, they don't even pay income tax on that egregious profit.

And apparently profit excuses all bad behavior, even building in floodplain, or fire-risk areas....

Meanwhile:

Every wildfire starts with an ignition – downed powerlines, lightning, arson – and we can do a lot to reduce these.

But in California the number of fires has dropped while the area burned has doubled. What has changed is conditions, not ignitions: pic.twitter.com/aKnoywYBvz

— Zeke Hausfather (@hausfath) January 16, 2025

 

 

Supervisor Rodriguez Promises a New...er, make that the Same Old Chapter

(c) by Mark Dempsey

Sacramento's newest Supervisor, Rosario Rodriguez has sent her inaugural newsletter, which promises a "new chapter" for the County. Yet she proposes more of the same to handle the County's problems. Does she expect a different outcome?

Her number one priority: Homelessness.

"The current situation is unacceptable. We need a comprehensive approach that not only addresses the immediate effects on our community but also provides meaningful services to help individuals break free from the cycle of homelessness."

Ms. Rodriguez adds she wants to address "substance abuse and mental health issues" but recent surveys of homelessness disclose that those are not its primary causes. It exists because rents have been rising faster than incomes. Forty percent of homeless people are employed, they just can't afford rent. Ms. Rodriguez is silent, incidentally, about the decades-ago closures of federal and state asylums, tossing the mentally ill out on the street.

Mental illness and addiction often occur after losing shelter, too. One homeless advocate describes homelessness as a kind of post-traumatic stress disorder. Countries who solve homelessness--Finland gave its homeless places to live--report improved health when people have dependable housing.

In fairness to the County, Richard Nixon stopped the federal government from building affordable housing in the '70s, and Ronald Reagan cut HUD's affordable housing budget by 75%, as his administration was cutting taxes on the wealthy roughly in half. The crisis in homelessness has been brewing for decades.

Ms. Rodriguez does not mention economic issues like rent control, increasing funding for safety nets, or even building new housing. She wants "partnering with nonprofits, faith-based organizations, and local governments to create innovative solutions." But what's "innovative" about more of the same?

Incidentally, building more houses is not necessary. There are more vacant homes than homeless throughout the nation. The US is not short of resources to address this problem.

Ms. Rodriguez' second priority ("Fighting Crime and Keeping Our Communities Safe") proposes an equally dismal more-of-the-same solution: "I will support our District Attorney and Sheriff in cracking down on crime and holding offenders accountable..." 

While US population increased 42% (1982 - 2017) spending on "cracking down" (policing) increased 187%. The US is the world champion at putting people in cages, too. With five percent of the world's population, it has twenty-five percent of its prisoners.

Hollywood may tell us that police or courts always solve the crimes, but the reality is something different: Says governing.com: "The [California] statewide clearance rate for crimes was just 13.2 percent in 2022, according to a new report. The rate for poverty crimes was only 7.2 percent. Despite receiving billions of dollars in funding — including more than $25 billion in 2022 — California police are solving few crimes."

So, despite generous funding, police are terrible at solving crimes, no matter what Hollywood myths tell us. That means putting people in cages--holding them "accountable"--at five times the world's per-capita average doesn't prevent crime. 

 

The US per-capita incarceration rate is seven times the Canadian and French incarceration rates, and they have lower crime rates. What they don't have is the more than half a million medical bankruptcies that occur in the US. Could making people financially desperate create more criminals? Gosh, I wonder! Either way, incarceration is both expensive--70% of the County's budget is for "justice-related" matters--and ineffective.

There are plenty of studies (like this one) that demonstrate better social safety nets are cheaper and more effective at preventing crime. We’ll see whether Ms. Rodriguez "shows us the money," or continues to demonize homelessness, poverty and the crime it generates, but her initial statements are anything but hopeful that we'll have anything like a "new chapter."

--

The author has worked on a  County Community Planning Advisory Council, and is a student of politics generally.

The Exceptional Economy

From Michael Roberts' blog:

Next week US president Joe Biden finishes his term of office, to be replaced by the Donald. Biden would have been extremely popular with the American public and probably would have run and got a second term as president, if US real GDP had increased by 4.5-5.0% in 2024, and if during the whole of his period of office since end 2020, real GDP had risen 23%; and if per American, real GDP had risen 26% over those four years. And he would have been congratulated if the Covid death rate during the 2020-21 pandemic had been one of the lowest in the world, and the economy avoided the pandemic slump in production.

Above all, he would have been feted if the inflation of prices in goods and services after he came into office was just 3.6% in total over four years. That would have meant that, with wages rising at 4-5% a year, real incomes for average American households would have risen significantly. At the same time, strong growth would have allowed the financing of important new infrastructure spending in the US that could have led to an extensive rail network across the country using super fast trains; and with bridges and roads that did not collapse or crumble along with environmental projects to protect people and homes from fires and floods, and the introduction of cheap electric vehicles and renewables. How Biden would have been popular.

And with extra revenue from strong growth, the Biden administration would have been able to balance the government budget and curb or reduce government debt. And with zero to low inflation, interest rates on borrowing would have been near historic lows, enabling households and companies to afford mortgages and finance investment in new technologies.

And what if US companies had sold a record level of exports of goods and services to the rest of the world, running up a sizeable surplus on trade, despite various tariffs and sanctions against American companies from other trading nations. In running trade surpluses, American banks and companies would have been able to build up foreign exchange reserves and invest in projects abroad, strengthening America’s influence in the world in a beneficial way.

Unfortunately, none of these things happened to the US economy in the four years of Biden’s presidency. Instead these were features of China’s economy. In 2024, China’s real GDP rose about 4.5%, while the US was up 2.7% (faster than anywhere else in the top G7 economies, but still only 60% of China’s growth rate). And throughout Biden’s term, China growth rate outstripped the US.

....

Remember, China’s economy has never suffered a decline in national output since 1949. And as John Ross has pointed out, if the Chinese economy continues to grow 4-5% a year over the next ten years, then it will double its GDP – and with a falling population, raise its GDP per person even more; ie more than two and half times as fast as the US.

Why is China exceptional? It is because it is an economy that is planned and led by state-owned companies, so it can ride most obstacles way better than a privately owned system of capitalist production as in the US. (Compare the US COVID death rate at 3544 deaths per million to China’s 85 (latest figures). China’s most important industries are run by SOEs [State Owned Enterprises]: finance, energy, infrastructure, mining, telecommunications, transportation, even some strategic manufacturing. The total capital of companies with some level of state ownership in China is 68% of total capital of all firms (40 million). The vast majority of Chinese companies in the Fortune Global 500 list are SOEs. SOEs generate at least 25% of China’s GDP in the most conservative estimates, and other studies have found them to contribute to 30-40+% of GDP.

Different Economic Systems 'Splained

 

When the fire department shows up thats Socialism. 🙄

When the Insurance Company doesn't pay, or cancels your policy, that's Capitalism.

— Brad (@BraddrofliT) January 13, 2025

The Truth About The LA Fires

 

After millions of views spreading lies about the Palisades firefighters lacking water because of regulations, the boring truth comes late like usual and wont be shared. Here it is:

1 - Reservoirs and water tanks were at normal levels and completely full before the fire.

2 - All… pic.twitter.com/DmSaTQJuiB

— Brian Krassenstein (@krassenstein) January 9, 2025

Billions Spent on Homelessness: Where did it all go?

 

AI and Conservatism

 

Interestingly parallel to Wilhoit: “Conservatism consists of exactly one proposition …There must be in-groups whom the law protects but does not bind, alongside out-groups whom the law binds but does not protect.”