Thursday, November 6, 2025

Material Conditions Matter: Slavery, the Fall of Rome, and the American Civil War

(c) by Mark Dempsey

A recent article about the fall of Rome cites the corruption and lack of civic consciousness of the elites as some of the causes of (Western) Rome's fall in the fourth and fifth centuries CE. However, it overlooks one important material cause of Rome's decline: food shortages. Material conditions matter.

Early Roman farmers practiced sustainable agriculture, maintaining soil fertility as they grew their crops. As more conquests produced more slaves, however, they abandoned those techniques to farm with slaves. Slaves don't care if they deplete the soil.

The depleted soil meant declining food production for Rome, which became more dependent on imported food, particularly from its North African colonies. The Vandals battled their way down the Iberian Peninsula to North Africa and shut off that food source. When the barbarians came to Rome, the hungry population opened the gates for them.*

One reason farming with slaves came to the New World in the American South was because Old World diseases like malaria and yellow fever decimated populations that might have otherwise supplied workers.** Africans had resistance to these diseases, so slavery made economic sense in a New World short of human labor, and was particularly necessary in the areas where the yellow fever and malaria vectors (mosquitoes) existed--roughly from the Mason-Dixon line to the northern border of Argentina.

Those diseases may also be the reason Napoleon's soldiers couldn't defeat a 1791–1804 slave revolt in Haiti. An army with too many deaths from illness is much easier to defeat.

Plantation operators solved the depleted soil problem in the New World not by planting soil-restoring crops like peanuts, but by moving to new territory and "mining" that soil. As the US expanded westward, the debate about whether the new territories would allow slavery was one of existential importance, at least to the South, where soils were degrading thanks to slave-based farming. The South's economic dependence on soil fertility trumped all the moralizing from abolitionists.

Farming cotton with slaves is perilous for other reasons too. Andrew Jackson's administration stole much of the Southeastern US from its native inhabitants despite Supreme Courts in Georgia and Washington D.C. confirming that the natives owned the land. Jackson dared the Supreme Court to enforce its order, and evicted the tribes from their land with a march called the "Trail of Tears." Note: Trump is not the first president to defy the courts.

This defiance made lots of new territory available for cotton farmers who occupied the land and borrowed to buy new slaves. But the income with which they expected to pay those loans did not materialize because they produced so much cotton that the price descended to new lows, even though they warehoused 60% of the crop.

Their difficulties were further compounded because, in 1835, Andrew Jackson paid off the national debt entirely and revoked the charter for the National Bank. That meant there was no public currency. People did their business with specie (monetized gold) and over 7,000 varieties of private bank notes of varying reliability. 

It was a business nightmare, and many planters lost everything because they lost their dollar savings and couldn't pay slave loans with either their cotton income or those savings. A wave of asset forfeitures and foreclosures – the "Panic of 1837"– ensued.

These events set the stage for the American Civil War. That war impoverished the South even more since, after the South lost, all its banks failed, and its Confederate currency was worthless. 

The postwar period was full of predatory lending from suppliers – the "furnishing man" later shortened to "The Man" – and the Gilded Age of predatory capitalism met with populist resistance from the only partly successful Farmers’ Alliance and the People's Party.

Both Rome and the American South illustrate how social inequality leads to a deterioration of civic life and the danger of social collapse. Currently, the US is experiencing massive social inequality, and even echoes Rome's dependence on imported food.

"Sustainability" is a watchword for some public policy candidates, but there's seldom any interest in a comprehensive pursuit of that goal. Even the way the US builds its cities--"suburban sprawl" – means maintenance expenses grow faster than the tax base, so our particular Ponzi scheme is literally cast in concrete. 

The rhyme of history may not be the one we want to hear.

*This simplifies some complex history, but if you're interested in the details, read Peter Heather's The Fall of the Roman Empire: A New History of Rome and the Barbarians.

**See Charles Mann's 1491: New Revelations of the Americas Before Columbus

Saturday, November 1, 2025

No Fooling

 "The first principle is that you must not fool yourself and you are the easiest person to fool." - Richard Feynman 

It's humbling to admit how easy we are to fool. Give a hypnotist ten minutes and he can have a crowd of people clucking like chickens. 

The ubiquitous marketing we encounter is always trying to fool us, to get us to buy things we may or may not need and believe things that are or aren't true. It's smoke and mirrors, bullshit and manipulation, the lipstick on the pig.

Part of the problem is that basic human knowledge depends on a narrative, language, or vocabulary to perceive the world. The visual cortex in our brains gets only ten percent of its nerves from data (the optic nerve). The rest is connected to language and memory. Even sight requires a vocabulary, and is susceptible to optical illusions.

Another source of deception is supernormal stimulus--something like buggy biological software. Here's a concise introduction to the concept in a comic by Stuart McMillan

 

Our bodies navigate the world with many algorithms. For example, if you stand up after lying down, your heart will (automatically) start pumping harder to make sure your blood pressure to your brain doesn't decline enough to make you faint. This kind of "software" manages everything from respiration to reproduction, walking to balancing on one foot, and like all software, is prone to defects--bugs.

Refined sugar takes advantage of one such bug. You can drink one of those gigantic sugary drinks all day long and the usual mechanisms that tell you that you've had enough to eat simply don't work. McMillan notes such bugs are not exclusive to humans--animals have them too--and they make them act in counter-productive ways. In humans, the seven deadly sins--Pride, Wrath, Greed, Gluttony, Envy, Sloth and Lust--are likely such bugs. 

We can also add the appetite for infinite fairness frequently on display in young children. Creditors often take advantage of interest compounding--which goes to infinity--and the feeling of obligation even though the source of repayment is finite, so people often willingly submit to debt peonage.

The effect of bugs on computer programs is to weaken the computer's computational power, and possibly even crash the machine. People angry about politics may vote for an opponent simply because that opponent is the only available alternative. 

"I don't care who people vote for as long as I can pick the candidates" said Boss Tweed (the corrupt manager of Tammany Hall). Political parties count on their marketing to make their candidates the only alternative.

As one Australian said "You Yanks don't consult the wisdom of democracy; you enable mobs." 

 Despite Abe Lincoln's old saying that you can't fool all the people all the time, Bridget Read's Little Bosses Everywherean exposee of multi-level marketing reminds us that fooling can persist for decades. Here's an excerpt:

"If the story of multilevel marketing sounds too good to be true, that's because it is. The parable of homespun Yankee ingenuity and the power of free enterprise that MLM has been telling for the better part of acentury contains inventions and elisions that have gone largely unchecked through fourteen U.S. presidential administrations and may constitute one of the most devastating, long-running scams in modern history." 

So...let's be careful (and humble) out there. 

 

Tuesday, October 28, 2025

The Present Political State of Play + Artificial Intelligence

 (c) by Mark Dempsey

In an interview with Charlie Sheen, Hollywood's bad boy, he describes an encounter with Donald Trump. He was with his fiancee in a restaurant when Trump visited to his table. Trump apologized for being unable to attend the wedding, sheepishly admitting he hadn't even got them a gift. Sheen told Trump that was okay, while thinking "Well, you weren't invited, so..."

Flush with inspiration, Trump says he's going to give Sheen his "Harry Winston, platinum, diamond" cufflinks, which Sheen accepts before they part company.

A few years later Sheen is having some jewelry appraised for the sake of his insurance and he asks the appraiser to take a look at the cufflinks. "They're pewter and cubic zirconia," says the appraiser. 

So...Trump is a con man through and through. Many voters were taken in, but others recognized that the system left them by the Obama administration was worth wrecking, regardless of Trump's lies and incompetence, so they sent a wrecking ball to Washington. 

One of the best analyses of the problems that led to Trump comes from Rob Urie...here.

 Excerpts: 

"For those who may have forgotten, the (Barack) Obama administration was warned when it shifted the judiciary function for capital cases abroad to the White House that doing so would come back to bite the Democrats. While Democrats trusted Mr. Obama to adjudicate fairly and only kill (as a King would) those who were deserving, few others in the world did. To now complain that too much power is concentrated in the Executive Branch would be rich if Democrats had any knowledge of what I am referring to.

"It is the Democrat’s inability to self-reflect— a product of their near-complete ignorance of the policies that they claim to support, that makes them so repellant to so many. While the following was as true of George W. Bush’s supporters as it is with today’s Democrats, those most supportive of the party know the least about its actual policies. Barack Obama’s economic policies, in particular his bailouts of Wall Street, were amongst the most socially destructive acts in modern American history....."

To connect this to AI:

"In terms of AI being naively brilliant, this refers to its deference to social logic rather than possessing analytical methods that it then applies to the underlying questions of interest on its own. Philosophically inclined readers will recognize the reach of philosophical Postmodernism here. The realm of AI is social, not physical. AI ‘trains’ on texts that reflect human interpretation of facts, not on the underlying facts themselves. This is, in fact, an implied restatement of the postmodern conceit that scientific knowledge is ‘socially constructed.’" 

Saturday, October 25, 2025

American doctor goes over how Barack Obama destroyed American Healthcare

 

Material Conditions Matter: Slavery, the Fall of Rome, and the American Civil War

(c) by Mark Dempsey A recent article about the fall of Rome cites the corruption and lack of civic consciousness of the elites as some of ...