Thursday, July 29, 2021

After Pelosi once again mischaracterizes government fiscal policy

 

 I wonder what would happen if, rather than bitching and moaning about Pelosi, people would write her…not to swear at her, but to remind her that the Federal government can’t “tax and spend.” It would be impossible. Where would taxpayers get the dollars to pay taxes if government didn’t spend them out into the economy first?

So sovereign, fiat money creators (like the U.S., not like Greece) are fiscally unconstrained. They don’t have to wait for tax revenue before spending. In fact, they must spend first! It’s spend first, then retrieve some dollars in taxes. The taxes make the money valuable; they do not provision government programs. (“Taxes drive money”)

And what do we call the dollars spent, but not retrieved in taxes? Answer #1: the dollar financial assets of the population (i.e. their savings). Answer #2: national ‘debt.’ It’s analogous to your bank account which is your asset, but the bank’s debt.

What are we owed for a dollar? Answer: a dollar’s worth of relief from taxes.

…Or words to that effect.

It’s important that outrage and insult not be part of the communication. I just have this fantasy (OK, I’m naive) that if Pelosi’s office were to receive say 20 mails saying that, she might just wake up from her zombified state.

Update: Surprise! Billionaire donors encourage Pelosi's position.

Saturday, July 24, 2021

Is California Still the Land of Opportunity?

(c) by Mark Dempsey


The errors and omissions in The Atlantic's recent The California Dream Is Dying article are the very definition of "fake news." The causes the article cites for that dying dream include unaffordable housing, NIMBYism, failing schools, burdensome regulation and a lack of meaningful political opposition.

The author, Conor Friedersdorf,  doesn't mention that unaffordable housing is not exclusive to California. Rhode Island is as likely to be unaffordable. Nevertheless, he parrots recent headlines about how its high prices are driving people out of state, but mentions nothing about how Richard Nixon put a moratorium on federally-built affordable housing a half century ago, or the way Ronald Reagan cut HUD's affordable housing budget 75%, after he cut taxes on the rich roughly in half and, with his successor, raised payroll taxes eightfold.

Affordable housing in the U.S. has been sabotaged from its inception in the '30s and '40s--apparently poor people deserve to be treated badly. It's not that we don't have the resources, either. San Francisco reportedly has five times more vacant housing than it has homeless, and that is not a problem exclusive to California. The Canadians started taxing such vacant investor homes in Vancouver to address the problem, apparently with some success.

Incidentally, taxing land makes it cheaper because speculators can't afford to hold it off the market until its price peaks (see realestate4ransom.com). How important is high-priced land in making housing unaffordable? Ryan-Collins, Lloyd and Macfarlane in Rethinking the Economics of Land and Housing estimate that 80% of recent house price rises stem from more expensive land.

Friedersdorf is correct in saying fierce NIMBY opposition to more compact development hinders affordability, but what he omits is that in California's tax structure residences don't pay their own way. Asking a neighborhood to accommodate more school children without funding the resources to teach them, more parks, or more public programs is bound to provoke opposition.

Given the multi-generational, bipartisan attack on the public realm--everything from sidewalks to schools to parks and other public amenities--it's not difficult to understand why suburbanites are reluctant to believe public figures' promises, and resist development that would demand an even more robust public realm, never mind that strangers would move into the neighborhood.

Friedersdorf also does not mention that Americans inhabit a continent where military attacks and old world diseases (malaria, yellow fever, measles, smallpox, etc.) killed 90% of its native population so previous generations' expectation about available land are certainly biased in favor of abundance. Could we have reached the limits to land and resources now? Could current, limited "opportunity" stem from California's now-played-out goldfields in the north state, or the declining oil production in the south state? Could disappointment about some "dream" already be baked in the cake? Gosh! I wonder!

Geometric progressions and cancer are things that grow without limit. Expecting America's land or economy to grow indefinitely, without frugal attention to our limits, is unhealthy and delusional. But hey, "No one ever went broke...underestimating the intelligence of the American public" (said H.L. Mencken)

The current economy has reduced a significant portion of the population to debt peonage. The Fed notes that 40% of Americans can't handle a $400 emergency without selling something or borrowing. Sixty-five percent of seniors have only Social Security for their retirement. The creditors are in the drivers' seat.

Meanwhile, interest on debt is one of the geometric progressions that compounds to infinity, while the resources of the real economy available for repayment, level out. The mathematical inevitability of unpayable debt haunts our nation--as it has haunted every civilization since ancient Babylon--never mind, California--yet the U.S. elected a president who voted to tighten bankruptcy just before the biggest downturn in more than a half century, the Great Recession. Where's H.L. Mencken when you need him?

Friedersdorf cites California schools in trouble, yet makes no mention of the impact of prop 13. That's like talking about the Great Depression without mentioning poverty. ["White courtesy telephone for H.L. Mencken!"]

California had great schools pre-prop-13 (1978). That proposition limited the property tax revenue available to fund schools and, as previously mentioned, encouraged land speculation. Now California schools are either 27th or 41st in the nation in per-student funding--it depends on your point of reference--not the top ten as they used to be.

Incidentally, this problem is not exclusive to California, either. Nationwide, federal grants to higher education have declined 55% since 1972 (says investigative journalist David Cay Johnston), and the states themselves have cut even more--37% in the last decade in Oklahoma (OKPolicy.org). Oklahoma now has trouble retaining teachers, and several Oklahoma school districts are proposing four-day school weeks.

Friedersdorf interviewed school "reformer" Gloria Romero who, says Wikipedia, is "active in the charter school industry in California." For that information, he could also have interviewed former Sacramento Mayor Kevin Johnson's wife Michelle Rhee. No interviews with teachers, though. Hmmm. Puzzling. Could he have an agenda?

The school "reform" industry is well-funded, typically by billionaires like the late Eli Broad who gave Rhee money for her "Students First" organization. They even produced a propaganda film called Waiting for Superman featuring Rhee's tenure as superintendent of Washington D.C. schools where she fired teachers who weren't "adding value," producing higher test scores in their classes. Waiting touts Finland's schools as the ones to emulate. Oddly, the film does not mention that Finnish teachers are tenured, unionized and well-paid.

The tactics suggested by the "reformers" are these: (union-busting) charter schools and/or vouchers ("school choice"), merit pay for teachers (because they're so motivated by money) and testing, testing, testing. Science validates none of these as improving educational outcomes, yet the myths persist and attract millions in funding from our plutocratic friends.

What does actually correlate with improvements in graduation rates, skill improvement, and other educational outcomes? Answer: childhood poverty. In Finland, the childhood poverty rate is 2%. In the U.S. it's 23%. Could some of those poor parents be too preoccupied with survival to choose objectively even if they got vouchers? Could the plutocrats funding "reform" want to distract us from their egregious wealth in the midst of the impoverished? Gosh, I wonder!

Does Friedersdorf mention or explore any of that? Nope. Instead, he interviews Romero who portrays the teachers' union as the bad guys. No teachers need apply for an interview, apparently.

He does find some stupid laws, even though finding stupid laws and regulations is like shooting fish in a barrel. After all, we could consume a boxcar full of marijuana without killing ourselves, but the drugs that kill literally millions (tobacco, alcohol, prescription drugs) are universally legal, whereas marijuana is finally coming out from under the racist legal prohibition initiated by the DEA's Harry Anslinger (his tenure was 1930-1962). Incidentally, Harpers Index once said that of 1,000 drug-related deaths in the U.S., only one originated with illegal drugs.

So is California's dream dying; is it still the "land of opportunity"? I'd suggest the problems faced by the planet, the nation, and California are pretty similar. The climate catastrophe barreling down the tracks toward us is not going to respect state boundaries. The financial parasites who brought us the subprime mortgage/derivatives meltdown are still not incarcerated.

Whether we build multi-family homes to house less-than-wealthy people is almost entirely the product of national mortgage policy. Even the desirable New Urbanist, non-sprawl, pedestrian-friendly mixed use, mixed-income neighborhoods are dependent on financing. New Urbanist neighborhoods cut vehicle miles traveled roughly in half, compared to sprawl, and have such good market acceptance that homeowners pay premiums to live in them

Change the FNMA underwriting guidelines to require it, and you'll have New Urbanism in a hurry. Continue to finance sprawl, a civic design convention stemming at least partly from racist white flight, and we'll continue to get sprawl. It has nothing to do with over-regulation, or California. Finance is the key to smart growth. Currently federal loan underwriting guidelines, with a few exceptions, finance dumb growth.

Guys like Friedersdorf assiduously avoid getting off the billionaire-funded track to suggest anything like solutions that might diminish those billions. We must, apparently, always and forever reduce taxes, deregulate, and employ the subterfuges listed above to keep the population squabbling among themselves, fighting over these distractions rather than targeting the real culprits, and finding real solutions.

Furthermore, the plutocrats' attack on government and its social safety net is in service of "labor discipline." That's the message that you had better take whatever crappy job is on offer, or you will suffer the indignities of poverty, ill health, even homelessness and starvation. And if you're extra ornery, we'll put you in a cage. The U.S. is currently the world champion incarcerator. This kind of thinking is the whip in the hands of the plutocrats.

And Friedersdorf is their true servant, adding to the whip of poverty, the distraction of misplaced focus to the problems begging for solution. He's a shill for inequality, and the immiseration of the American population, not for solutions to the serious problems we face.

Tuesday, July 20, 2021

From Ages of American Capitalism: A History of the United States - by Jonathan Levy



p. 360 "The United States was responsible for 60 percent of all international loans between 1924 and 1931. U.S. capital financed European reconstruction. "

"the punitive Treaty of Versailles (1919) had burndened Germany with $33 billion in war reparations but Britain and France owed prodigious war debts to the United States--$5 billion and $4 billion respectively. Famously, after massive international capital flight, Germany suffered hyperinflation from 1921 to 1923. In 1923, after a currency devaluation, Germany repegged its currency to gold.  That same year, to extract reparations payments, France occupied Germany's coal-rich Ruhr Valley. ...

"In sum, U.S. loans to Germany began to be recycled into reparations payments to Britain and France, which then traveled back across the Atlantic to pay down British and French war debts."

p. 603f re: the "Volcker Shock" around 1980: "High interest rates made credit for investment of any kind scarce, while recession only undermined profits for reinvestment. Furthermore, as the Fed relinquished control over interest rates during the monetarist experiment, rates not only climbed but became far more volatile than usual. ...In response, the owners of capital hoarded what cash they had, sapping long-term investment. Between 1979 and 1982, the percentage of manufacturing firms' total revenues resulting from "portfolio income," whether dividends, capital gains or interest accrual, climbed from 20 percent to 40 percent."

p.621 "In the early 1980s, provits from the FIRE sector (finance, insurance, and real estate) surpassed those from manufacturing. In 1978, for manufacturing firms, portfolio income (from interest accrual, dividends and realized capital gains) was 18 percent of total profits. By 1990 it was 60 percent."

 

...Among other things, Levy notes the FIRE sector does the bulk of our economic planning now, preferring portfolio income to actual productivity growth. Our current economy sets aside productivity for asset appreciation...not a good trend. 

In related news:

“How Public Housing was Destined to Fail” is certainly worth a look.

Also: realestate4ransom.com

In any case, asset price appreciation (the perception of wealth) certainly has priority now, rather than genuine productivity (actual wealth). Alfred North Whitehead calls this the “fallacy of misplaced concreteness.” It’s like going to a restaurant and devouring the paper menu rather than the food. The Bible calls this “idolatry,” so its a longstanding human issue.

 

Friday, July 16, 2021

Council of Infill Builders’ David Mogavero’s Infill Presentation

On July 12, 2021, at a Special Environmental Council of Sacramento (ECOS) meeting (Joint Session: Land Use & Transportation, Air Quality and Climate Change Committees) architect David Mogavero spoke to ECOS.




How can we encourage infill development and discourage green-field development?

David Mogavero is a Board Member of the Council of Infill Builders, and a past president of ECOS.

David Mogavero addressed these questions:
  • How do we calculate infill capacity?
  • How many market-rate and affordable dwelling units will we need in our region?
  • How much infill housing development capacity do we have?
  • Would still we need more greenfield development?
  • What density criteria are used to determine needed infill development capacity?
  • What are potential problems with larger high-density infill developments?
  • Nearby residents often resist higher density, affordable housing near transit hubs.
  • Small, high-density infill development problems:
  • Do we need accessory dwelling units (ADUs) and multiplex housing?
  • How can we make small projects easier to finance and build?
Missed it?

Click here for David Mogavero’s slideshow.
More Info

Learn more about ECOS committees here: https://www.ecosacramento.net/about-us/committees.

To learn more about the Council of Infill Developers, visit their website at http://www.councilofinfillbuilders.org/.

Monday, July 12, 2021

Ransomware - a double-edged problem that originates from bitcoin and other cryptocurrencies

The singular reason why these [now-frequent ransomware] attacks are even possible is due entirely to rise of cryptocurrency. Consider the same situation on top of the existing international banking system. Go to your local bank branch and try to wire transfer $200,000 to an anonymous stranger in Russia and see how that works out. Modern ransomware could not exist without Bitcoin, it has poured gasoline on a fire we may not be able to put out.

When you create a loophole channel (however flawed) for parties to engage in illicit financing of anonymous entities beyond the control of law enforcement, it turns out a lot of shady businesses models that are otherwise prevented move from being impractical and risky to perversely incentivized….

This battle cannot and will not be won on the technology side alone. The tech industry can’t solve this. It requires legislation [limiting or prohibiting cryptocurrencies] and intervention in the financial system at only the level nation states can act.

 
(from The Oncoming Ransomware Storm by Stephen Diehl)

Monday, July 5, 2021

Local Planning Follies: 2021 edition

(c) by Mark Dempsey

A local resident recently wrote the Orangevale View to plead for citizen participation in land-use planning since Orangevale is "under threat." In this case, builders want more homes than the designated zoning, requesting 2 - 3 homes per acre rather than the current zoning of one on five acres. (The "Preserve Orangevale's Country Life" facebook page lists several projects that propose increased density in Orangevale north of Greenback.)

As someone who sat on a Community Planning Advisory Council (CPAC) for nearly a decade, I'd suggest the writer is counting far too much on the CPAC, and is missing the bigger picture. Incidentally, there's  a two-year term limit for CPAC members, but no one else was dumb enough to volunteer.

First, CPACs are advisory only--they do not make the final decision. The Planning Commission and the Board of Supervisors do that. When my CPAC voted unanimously to reject a project, the Supervisors unanimously approved it. Guess whose opinion prevailed?

In our region, the process itself is designed to fail. Public policy makers defuse public anger with endless, and meaningless hearings when the public patronizes meetings that are advisory only. Even zoning is virtually unenforced.

The region's planning process is so meaningless that in 2004, at the height of a recent housing bubble, 35,000 acres were proposed for rezone. We don't have "plans," we barely have suggestions. 

A few years ago several locals told Supervisor Roberta MacGlashan we didn't want a Walmart at Hazel and Greenback, she rejected the request, saying the zoning was commercial, so she could do nothing about it. Zoning apparently arrives on stone tablets, engraved by lightning, at least until the land speculators propose a change.

A contrary example: by my count, the Tim Lewis' "Brentwood Village" development at Pecan and Greeenback could have respected any one of four different plans: the Regional Blueprint, the Sacramento County General Plan, the Orangevale Community Plan and an "SPA" (Special Planning Area)--a 35-page document that was probably the result of weeks of advisory hearings and community deliberation. So which plan was built? Answer: None of the above. The stone tablets turn to vapor when the mood is right.

So when the Orangevale View writer cites the proposed projects are not "following the rules" it's just a sign of inexperience with the system. Orangevale's proposals are tiny compared to 3,000 acres at Sunrise/Douglas which was rezoned from agriculture to intensive building. Sacramento City annexed then rezoned thousands of acres of agriculture in North Natomas. It's a pattern.

North Natomas is especially unsuited for development since it's 20 foot underwater floodplain surrounded by weak levees. It's so unsuitable that a federal grant to increase the regional sewer plant's capacity even required a $6 million penalty if that capacity served North Natomas. 

The speculators who controlled the North Natomas land were unfazed. They went all the way to then-vice-president George Herbert Walker Bush, who made that penalty payable in installments rather than the prohibitive up front fee, and got the speculators a $43 million grant to improve those weak levees to pre-Katrina standards.

Paying $6 on the installment plan to get $43 is a pretty good deal--but wait, there's more! The speculators paid roughly $2,000 an acre for North Natomas, and once they got their entitlements to build, sold it to builders for a hundred times what they paid (Wincrest homes was one buyer). If your calculator isn't handy, that's 10,000% gross return on investment (ROI). And since developers can trade the newly-valuable land for income producing property like shopping malls and apartments and defer taxes indefinitely, it counts as after-tax ROI!

The late Supervisor Grantland Johnson once told a public meeting that it's widely acknowledged throughout the state that our region is the most in the hip pocket of the developers. This is not a contest we want to win.

So while you're protesting a five acre rezone, ask Supervisor Sue Frost why she voted (on LAFCO) to expand Elk Grove by roughly a thousand acres when that City has at least that much vacant infill now. Ask our supervisors why we're even considering any outlying development when the region has 20 years worth of unbuilt infill. I'd encourage everyone to protest the process as much as any single project. We could have smart growth, but this ain't it. It's designed to fail, and works as designed.

 --

Mark Dempsey was vice-chair of the Rio Linda/Elverta CPAC who has been writing about this for a long time. Here's a piece from 1993, for one example.

The omission in U.S. city "planning"

from Interfluidity:


Michael Eliason has a great piece (hosted at David Roberts’ substack) describing the kind of experiments with the urban built environment that are common in parts of Europe but unheard of the in United States. Eliason writes:

“It should be noted that these developments are largely the result of urban planning competitions. This is in stark contrast to the US, where we incorporate little to no urban planning and essentially let the market drive development, with no forethought to livability, open space, schools, walkability, and so forth.

Citizen participation is also a major component of these projects. Unlike in the US, this participation isn’t a wasteful exercise whereby local homeowners get to block new homes and preserve the status quo. Rather, these processes allow residents to have a say in what their new district can look like, where things should be located, and what kinds of open space or car-free areas it will have. It is true democratic planning, facilitated by spatial planning policies that are both top-down and bottom-up. We should probably take note.”

But in the United States, don’t new towns just become Levittown or Columbia, Maryland — car-centric, shopping-mall centered, suburban sprawl? By default, yes they do. If you let the market do its thing, the national homebuilders will build out tracts of cul-de-sacs and detached homes in their sleep, hardly even noticing what they’ve done. The “market” is a local optimizer, a risk-averse creature of habit. Even under the best of circumstances the market would build too little, given the asymmetry of social costs of housing scarcity versus overabundance. We want more experimentation than the market would provide, and as Eliason points out, we want planning during which future residents exercise a meaningful franchise. The United States used to be a site of utopian experiments. It ought to be again. We’ll need activist government, some form of social housing, in order to make that happen.

 

See also why public housing fails in the U.S.

The real problem with healthcare

 

Friday, July 2, 2021

"Just enforce the law"

(From David Cay Johnston's "D.C. Report")

50 years for a Pizza Thief

Jerry Dewayne Williams—broke, hungry and turned away when he begged for food—grabbed a slice of pizza from four children in Redondo Beach, Calif. Williams got 25 years to life, though a judge let him go after five years.

And then there’s Leandro Andrade, another penniless man, who stole four videos in one store and five in another. The U.S. Supreme Court held that his consecutive 25-year sentences were “not unreasonable.”

Yet the Trump Organization asserts that enabling its chief finance officer to steal $880,000 from the federal, state and New York City governments shouldn’t be prosecuted.

Nine bucks, nine videos, one slice of pizza for a hungry man result in life sentences or damn close, but prosecutors should look the other way or allow tax fraudsters to negotiate in secret, pay some money and go on their way? That’s Trumpian chutzpah.

Victor Hugo’s 19th Century novel Les Misérables about Jean Valjean, who stole bread for his starving sister and spent the next 19 years in prison, is not exactly fiction in modern-day America.

One law for peasants and another for the privileged is not in our Declaration of Independence or our Constitution. Still, it dwells in the hearts of a majority of our Supreme Court justices, as well as Donald Trump and his costly white-collar criminal defense lawyers.