Saturday, November 1, 2025

No Fooling

 "The first principle is that you must not fool yourself and you are the easiest person to fool." - Richard Feynman 

It's humbling to admit how easy we are to fool. Give a hypnotist ten minutes and he can have a crowd of people clucking like chickens. 

The ubiquitous marketing we encounter is always trying to fool us, to get us to buy things we may or may not need and believe things that are or aren't true. It's smoke and mirrors, bullshit and manipulation, the lipstick on the pig.

Part of the problem is that basic human knowledge depends on a narrative, language, or vocabulary to perceive the world. The visual cortex in our brains gets only ten percent of its nerves from data (the optic nerve). The rest is connected to language and memory. Even sight requires a vocabulary, and is susceptible to optical illusions.

Another source of deception is supernormal stimulus--something like buggy biological software. Here's a concise introduction to the concept in a comic by Stuart McMillan

Our bodies navigate the world with many algorithms. For example, if you stand up after lying down, your heart will (automatically) start pumping harder to make sure your blood pressure to your brain doesn't decline enough to make you faint. This kind of "software" manages everything from respiration to reproduction, and like all software, is prone to defects--bugs.

Refined sugar takes advantage of one such bug. You can drink one of those gigantic sugary drinks all day long and the usual mechanisms that tell you that you've had enough calories for now simply don't work. McMillan notes such bugs are not exclusive to humans--animals have them too--and they make them act in counter-productive ways. In humans, the seven deadly sins--Pride, Wrath, Greed, Gluttony, Envy, Sloth and Lust--are likely such bugs. 

We can also add the appetite for infinite fairness frequently on display in young children, and creditors often take advantage of interest compounding--which goes to infinity--and the feeling of obligation even though the source of repayment is finite.

The effect of bugs on computer programs is to weaken the computer's computational power, and possibly even crash the machine. People angry about politics may vote for an opponent simply because that opponent is the only available alternative. 

"I don't care who people vote for as long as I can pick the candidates" said Boss Tweed (the corrupt manager of Tammany Hall). Political parties count on their marketing to make their candidates the only alternative.

As one Australian said "You Yanks don't consult the wisdom of democracy; you enable mobs." 

 Despite Abe Lincoln's old saying that you can't fool all the people all the time, Bridget Read's Little Bosses Everywherean exposee of multi-level marketing reminds us that fooling can persist for decades. Here's an excerpt:

"If the story of multilevel marketing sounds too good to be true, that's because it is. The parable of homespun Yankee ingenuity and the power of free enterprise that MLM has been telling for the better part of acentury contains inventions and elisions that have gone largely unchecked through fourteen U.S. presidential administrations and may constitute one of the most devastating, long-running scams in modern history." 

 

Tuesday, October 28, 2025

The Present Political State of Play + Artificial Intelligence

 (c) by Mark Dempsey

In an interview with Charlie Sheen, Hollywood's bad boy, he describes an encounter with Donald Trump. He was with his fiancee in a restaurant when Trump visited to his table. Trump apologized for being unable to attend the wedding, sheepishly admitting he hadn't even got them a gift. Sheen told Trump that was okay, while thinking "Well, you weren't invited, so..."

Flush with inspiration, Trump says he's going to give Sheen his "Harry Winston, platinum, diamond" cufflinks, which Sheen accepts before they part company.

A few years later Sheen is having some jewelry appraised for the sake of his insurance and he asks the appraiser to take a look at the cufflinks. "They're pewter and cubic zirconia," says the appraiser. 

So...Trump is a con man through and through. Many voters were taken in, but others recognized that the system left them by the Obama administration was worth wrecking, regardless of Trump's lies and incompetence, so they sent a wrecking ball to Washington. 

One of the best analyses of the problems that led to Trump comes from Rob Urie...here.

 Excerpts: 

"For those who may have forgotten, the (Barack) Obama administration was warned when it shifted the judiciary function for capital cases abroad to the White House that doing so would come back to bite the Democrats. While Democrats trusted Mr. Obama to adjudicate fairly and only kill (as a King would) those who were deserving, few others in the world did. To now complain that too much power is concentrated in the Executive Branch would be rich if Democrats had any knowledge of what I am referring to.

"It is the Democrat’s inability to self-reflect— a product of their near-complete ignorance of the policies that they claim to support, that makes them so repellant to so many. While the following was as true of George W. Bush’s supporters as it is with today’s Democrats, those most supportive of the party know the least about its actual policies. Barack Obama’s economic policies, in particular his bailouts of Wall Street, were amongst the most socially destructive acts in modern American history....."

To connect this to AI:

"In terms of AI being naively brilliant, this refers to its deference to social logic rather than possessing analytical methods that it then applies to the underlying questions of interest on its own. Philosophically inclined readers will recognize the reach of philosophical Postmodernism here. The realm of AI is social, not physical. AI ‘trains’ on texts that reflect human interpretation of facts, not on the underlying facts themselves. This is, in fact, an implied restatement of the postmodern conceit that scientific knowledge is ‘socially constructed.’" 

Saturday, October 25, 2025

American doctor goes over how Barack Obama destroyed American Healthcare

 

A Review of Biden Press Secretary Karine Jean-Pierre's book

Jean-Pierre was Biden's press secretary, and her book, Independent, a Look Inside a Broken White House Outside the Party lines , is an ode to failed Democratic Party ideas from which she's trying to distance herself by repeating. The full review is here. Excerpts: 
'Jean-Pierre is revealingly blinkered. She may represent the future of the Democratic Party, despite her notional disavowal of it. Like many younger Democrats, she came of age in the in-this-house era and made her name by embracing its symbolism and sensibility. Now, she has perhaps been advised by a team of pollsters and PR professionals to distance herself from a party that is rapidly hemorrhaging appeal and support. Yet, like her colleagues in the halls of Congress, she appears to have little authentic understanding of why her erstwhile party’s approval rating has cratered. The approach she opts for in this book — loudly declaring herself an independent in a futile effort to cleanse herself of the taint of her party, all while espousing the same old worldview in the same old tired tone — is one that will surely tempt many of her peers. The silver lining is that she has provided an object lesson in exactly what not to do. The question is whether the Democrats are capable of learning from her example.

"Jean-Pierre’s central complaint boils down, more or less, to a vague sense of personal grievance. The Democrats were mean to Biden, her boss; they were mean to her personally, as she outlines in a lengthy diatribe against fellow staffers who leaked unflattering information about her to Politico; and they were mean to Harris, whom they refused to anoint as the nominee without a fight. Jean-Pierre sums up her complaints when she writes that she’s “exasperated with the shady way Democrats do business” — but not, we may presume, with the business itself." 

Friday, October 24, 2025

The State of American "Justice" (A Musical Tribute to Houston's Harris County Jail)

 

 

Mostly true of the Sacramento County Jail, too. Sixty to eighty percent of the Sacramento County Jail prisoners aren't convicted of anything except being too poor to afford bail. In Sacramento County, you're not "innocent until proven guilty," you're "guilty until proven wealthy."

Wednesday, October 22, 2025

The triumph of classical economics

 Classical economics proposed the law of declining profits. In a totally free market with plenty of competition and low barriers to entry, firms will lower prices, lowering profits until they barely make enough to survive. Naturally, US firms do everything possible to avoid this, lobbying for regulatory barriers to entry, buying competitors, making monopolies and oligopolies. The Chinese have apparently figured this out, as this tweet discloses:





...which leads to a comment about the current business model of tech:

Tuesday, October 21, 2025

The Obama Legacy

 



Amen, Brother Sirota. Without this recognition, Trump voters are just ignorant bigots to be shunned. With it, their anger is understandable...not that anger makes for clearer thinking or better outcomes. Still, there's no more effective way to divide (and rule) the population than lording the innocence of the Democrats over Trump's "wrecking ball" presidency.

No Fooling

  "The first principle is that you must not fool yourself and you are the easiest person to fool." - Richard Feynman  It's hum...