The true crime story

 

THREAD: There’s a lot of talk right now about crime in San Francisco. Almost everything you’ll read in the mainstream press is wrong. I live in the Tenderloin and work in the courts every day. Here’s my take on what’s happening and why.

— Peter Calloway (@petercalloway) April 1, 2022

Let’s start with an example of the pervasive disinformation: In a recent piece on the TL—where I’ve lived for 4 yrs, and the epicenter of the city’s homelessness and drug crises—a Washington Post journalist, @PostScottWilson, tells readers that crime in the TL is out of control.

— Peter Calloway (@petercalloway) April 1, 2022

Murder and rape are up double-digit percentages since last year! Well, he’s right about that. And it sounds scary. But what are the actual increases (# of incidents, not %)? Homicides increased from 10 to 11. Rapes increased from 22 to 28. https://t.co/uomhDaMBGP

— Peter Calloway (@petercalloway) April 1, 2022

What about crime in the city overall? If you read the Chronicle (with some exceptions), or the recall campaign literature, or national outlets advancing the conservative claim that SF is a failed experiment in progressive policymaking, you probably think it’s out of control.

— Peter Calloway (@petercalloway) April 1, 2022

Let’s take a look at the actual numbers.

First, a note on methodology: These statistics are generated from data provided by SFPD, so we’re playing on their field. And I’m using 2019 as a baseline. Why?

— Peter Calloway (@petercalloway) April 1, 2022

Because in 2020, crime across the country reached historic lows. So while the city saw increases in crime (mostly marginal) in *some* of these categories from 2020-2021, that’s largely due to the fact that for most of 2020, everyone was spending most their time at home indoors.

— Peter Calloway (@petercalloway) April 1, 2022

Now, the numbers: Citywide, from 2019-21, homicides increased 36%. That sounds significant, but the actual # increase was 15. SF has one of the lowest homicide rates among major cities in the US. Include rural communities, and San Francisco’s not even in the conversation.

— Peter Calloway (@petercalloway) April 1, 2022

Over the same period, rape, robbery, and assault *decreased* by 47% (-191), 27% (-851), and 6% (-160). So, violent crime (which the SFPD categorizes as homicide, rape, robbery, and assault) decreased by 19% (-1187). Property crime over that period is down by 11% (-6083).

— Peter Calloway (@petercalloway) April 1, 2022

etc, etc, etc.

Meanwhile, from Northern CA:

  

(from the Davis Vanguard) Note that Sacramento's DA is no fan of progressive policies. In recent elections, she's opposed every measure to reduce prison populations. As Ankita Joshi writes this week, the irony is that the two DA’s being recalled potentially – George Gascon in LA and Chesa Boudin in San Francisco, have actually done better on a whole host of measures than DA Anne Marie Schubert of Sacramento, who has become the spokesperson for tough on crime policies, both as DA and now running against AG Rob Bonta.

 

Update (5/21/22):

   

 

From this story.