(excerpt from an LA Times article by Melanie Mason)
OCT. 7, 2018, 12:05 A.M.
...California, ...must adapt to its reality. The state’s long-held self-image — a blend of Tomorrowland and Fountain of Youth — is colliding with the inescapable fact that the Golden State is getting old.
The next governor will be confronted with a demographic shift of epic proportions: Seniors will be California’s fastest-growing population. Between now and 2026, the number of Californians 65 and older is expected to climb by 2.1 million, according to projections by the state Department of Finance. By contrast, the number of 25- to 64-year-olds is projected to grow by just more than half a million; the number of Californians younger than 25 will grow by a mere 2,500.
Seniors to shape California’s future
According to projections from California’s Department of Finance, seniors will make up a sharply larger share of the state’s population by 2060 — the only age bracket to grow in scale.
Source: California Department of Finance
That radical transformation has been largely absent from discussion as politicians grapple with education, healthcare and environmental policies.
But the graying of California will seep into nearly every nook of the state budget and policy planning under the next governor. It will determine what services will be in demand and how money must be spent. Most significant, it will place enormous strain on the state’s already fragile network of long-term services and supports, including in-home aides and skilled nursing facilities.
“We are exquisitely unprepared for that [oldest] age demographic pushing through,” said Dr. Bruce Chernof, president of the SCAN Foundation, an aging advocacy group.
‘Things are going to be dramatically changing’
What does it mean to govern an aging state? It means dealing with higher healthcare costs, particularly for low-income seniors who are eligible for Medi-Cal coverage, the state-subsidized healthcare system for the poor. There are currently close to 1.2 million Californians 65 or older enrolled in the program.
It means grappling with poverty in a different way. California politicians often focus on the state’s child poverty rate, which averaged nearly 23% from 2014 to 2016. But fewer talk about the poverty rate among seniors, which was 20% during the same time period, according to the U.S. Census Bureau’s Supplemental Poverty Measure. The fastest-growing population of homeless people is among older adults; in Los Angeles County, the number of homeless people 62 or older surged by 22% this year, even as the overall homeless population slightly dropped.A homeless man eats soup prepared by chef Lovejoy Cole during the weekly free food, clothing and water giveaway by My Friend’s House Foundation in Skid Row in Los Angeles. (Genaro Molina / Los Angeles Times)
As the population of low-income seniors swells, demand for safety-net programs for the elderly — such as financial assistance for low-income seniors or payments to in-home caregivers — is likely to balloon.
State coffers, as well as local governments and school districts, could be squeezed by growing numbers of retired government workers. Even best-case scenarios show the state could need an additional $230 billion over the next three decades for existing promises to cover retirees’ pension and healthcare costs.
It could mean revamping the transportation system to better accommodate people who can no longer drive, or making sure more units of new housing are accessible to people in wheelchairs or with impaired mobility. Is air quality an aging issue? Yes, particularly when incidents of asthma, commonly seen as a childhood disease, increase among those over 65.
And with projections showing that California’s population will skew older for decades to come — beyond the baby boomer generation — the decisions the next governor makes could reverberate for the foreseeable future.
A rapidly aging state
Almost every county in the state will see its median age rise more than five years by 2050. Many of the counties with the highest increases are in rural, more sparsely populated areas.
Median age in California counties
< 35 years
35-40 years
40-45 years
45-50 years
50+ years
The estimated median age in California was 35 in 2010
The projected median age is 38 in 2020
The projected median age is 40 in 2030
The projected median age is 42 in 2040
The projected median age is 43 in 2050
The projected median age is 44 in 2060
Median income in California’s oldest counties
Source: State Franchise Tax Board. Median income is from 2015.
“If we have that conversation based on the demographic makeup of what the state is today, and we don’t anticipate things are going to be dramatically changing over the next several decades, we’re not going to be prepared to make the right decisions,” said Paul Rosenstiel, chairman of the board of the California Budget and Policy Center.
No single government entity has ownership of the issue of aging. Medi-Cal is governed by the Department of Health Care Services, while the In-Home Supportive Services program, which pays for home care for the low-income elderly and disabled, is overseen by the Department of Social Services and is administered by each county. The Department of Aging contracts with local agencies to provide caregiver resources, while the Department of Veterans Affairs operates homes for aging vets.
“It’s like a hundred-piece jigsaw puzzle,” Chernof said. “None of those departments and funding streams have much connection to each other.”Aging is slow-motion. Fixing a pothole today is something everybody can see and feel.— Bruce Chernof, president of the SCAN Foundation, on the difficulties of getting public support for aging programs.
OCT. 7, 2018, 12:05 A.M.
...California, ...must adapt to its reality. The state’s long-held self-image — a blend of Tomorrowland and Fountain of Youth — is colliding with the inescapable fact that the Golden State is getting old.
The next governor will be confronted with a demographic shift of epic proportions: Seniors will be California’s fastest-growing population. Between now and 2026, the number of Californians 65 and older is expected to climb by 2.1 million, according to projections by the state Department of Finance. By contrast, the number of 25- to 64-year-olds is projected to grow by just more than half a million; the number of Californians younger than 25 will grow by a mere 2,500.
Seniors to shape California’s future
According to projections from California’s Department of Finance, seniors will make up a sharply larger share of the state’s population by 2060 — the only age bracket to grow in scale.
Source: California Department of FinanceThat radical transformation has been largely absent from discussion as politicians grapple with education, healthcare and environmental policies.
But the graying of California will seep into nearly every nook of the state budget and policy planning under the next governor. It will determine what services will be in demand and how money must be spent. Most significant, it will place enormous strain on the state’s already fragile network of long-term services and supports, including in-home aides and skilled nursing facilities.
“We are exquisitely unprepared for that [oldest] age demographic pushing through,” said Dr. Bruce Chernof, president of the SCAN Foundation, an aging advocacy group.
‘Things are going to be dramatically changing’
What does it mean to govern an aging state? It means dealing with higher healthcare costs, particularly for low-income seniors who are eligible for Medi-Cal coverage, the state-subsidized healthcare system for the poor. There are currently close to 1.2 million Californians 65 or older enrolled in the program.
It means grappling with poverty in a different way. California politicians often focus on the state’s child poverty rate, which averaged nearly 23% from 2014 to 2016. But fewer talk about the poverty rate among seniors, which was 20% during the same time period, according to the U.S. Census Bureau’s Supplemental Poverty Measure. The fastest-growing population of homeless people is among older adults; in Los Angeles County, the number of homeless people 62 or older surged by 22% this year, even as the overall homeless population slightly dropped.A homeless man eats soup prepared by chef Lovejoy Cole during the weekly free food, clothing and water giveaway by My Friend’s House Foundation in Skid Row in Los Angeles. (Genaro Molina / Los Angeles Times)
As the population of low-income seniors swells, demand for safety-net programs for the elderly — such as financial assistance for low-income seniors or payments to in-home caregivers — is likely to balloon.
State coffers, as well as local governments and school districts, could be squeezed by growing numbers of retired government workers. Even best-case scenarios show the state could need an additional $230 billion over the next three decades for existing promises to cover retirees’ pension and healthcare costs.
It could mean revamping the transportation system to better accommodate people who can no longer drive, or making sure more units of new housing are accessible to people in wheelchairs or with impaired mobility. Is air quality an aging issue? Yes, particularly when incidents of asthma, commonly seen as a childhood disease, increase among those over 65.
And with projections showing that California’s population will skew older for decades to come — beyond the baby boomer generation — the decisions the next governor makes could reverberate for the foreseeable future.
A rapidly aging state
Almost every county in the state will see its median age rise more than five years by 2050. Many of the counties with the highest increases are in rural, more sparsely populated areas.
Median age in California counties
< 35 years
35-40 years
40-45 years
45-50 years
50+ years
The estimated median age in California was 35 in 2010
The projected median age is 38 in 2020
The projected median age is 40 in 2030
The projected median age is 42 in 2040
The projected median age is 43 in 2050
The projected median age is 44 in 2060
Median income in California’s oldest counties
Source: State Franchise Tax Board. Median income is from 2015.“If we have that conversation based on the demographic makeup of what the state is today, and we don’t anticipate things are going to be dramatically changing over the next several decades, we’re not going to be prepared to make the right decisions,” said Paul Rosenstiel, chairman of the board of the California Budget and Policy Center.
No single government entity has ownership of the issue of aging. Medi-Cal is governed by the Department of Health Care Services, while the In-Home Supportive Services program, which pays for home care for the low-income elderly and disabled, is overseen by the Department of Social Services and is administered by each county. The Department of Aging contracts with local agencies to provide caregiver resources, while the Department of Veterans Affairs operates homes for aging vets.
“It’s like a hundred-piece jigsaw puzzle,” Chernof said. “None of those departments and funding streams have much connection to each other.”Aging is slow-motion. Fixing a pothole today is something everybody can see and feel.— Bruce Chernof, president of the SCAN Foundation, on the difficulties of getting public support for aging programs.
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