Lately I've been debating whether to resume regular get-togethers for socializing, music, parties, etc. and wondered what kind of standard might apply, given the current state of the pandemic. What I came across was
this (reported by NBC):
Data as of Feb. 8, 10:07 a.m. ET.
The
CDC determines an area's level of virus transmissibility based on the
average number of cases relative to a county's population and the Covid
test positivity rate. If two indicators suggest different transmission
levels, the higher level is selected.
Low transmission: fewer than 10 new cases per 100,000 and less than 5 percent positive test rate.
Moderate transmission: 10-49.99 new cases per 100,000, 5-7.99 percent positive test rate.
Substantial transmission: 50-100 new cases per 100,000, 8-9.99 percent positivity rate.
High transmission: 100 or more new cases per 100,000, 10 percent or higher positivity rate.
Masks are recommended in areas with substantial or high transmission.
Where I'm located, in Sacramento County, daily cases are 61 per 100,000 residents, with a
test positivity rate of 12.8% (i.e. "high transmission," at least, if you are guided by the higher positivity test rate)
. El Dorado County reports 41 cases per
100,000, with a test positivity rate of 12.1%.
Update: Just FYI, there is a
County Dashboard. Google for your location. As of 2/28/22, the case rate is down to 17.6. (moderate transmission)
So...at least by CDC standards, we're not out of the woods yet. The
Sacramento Bee publishes the cases and positivity rate regularly for Sacramento and surrounding counties. FYI, the
NY Times evaluates the CDC
here and
here.
For
those of you interested in a bit of history about how we got to this
point (and how bad the CDC has been), you can try Michael Lewis' Premonition
book. One indicator of how inadequate the U.S. response has been: the U.S. has 5% of the world's population, but 22%
of the deaths--more casualties than in wars since, and including, World
War I.
In any case, you now have at least one benchmark by which you can guide your own
behavior. Unfortunately the phrase "follow the science" does not make
science unambiguous, omniscient or always correct, but this information
may be better than seat-of-the-pants guidance.
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