Toynbee's Prophecy

 Hoisted from Naked Capitalism's comments:

shades of Toynbee.
from the wiki on “A study of history”:

“Toynbee does not see the breakdown of civilizations as caused by loss of control over the physical environment, by loss of control over the human environment, or by attacks from outside. Rather, it comes from the deterioration of the “Creative Minority”, which eventually ceases to be creative and degenerates into merely a “Dominant Minority”.
 

He argues that creative minorities deteriorate due to a worship of their “former self,” by which they become prideful and fail adequately to address the next challenge they face.
Results of the breakdown
 

The final breakdown results in “positive acts of creation;” the dominant minority seeks to create a Universal state to preserve its power and influence, and the internal proletariat seeks to create a Universal church to preserve its spiritual values and cultural norms. ”