How accurate are our perceptions of crime?

From: Views on Crime Will Turn Me into the Joker–and Might Be Harming Democrats More Than Some Think by mikethemadbiologist

A couple weeks ago, this poll by YouGov asked “Since 1990, would you say murder rates in U.S. cities have…?” The answer:


By the way, the correct answer is “Decreased a lot”, but even if we lump the ‘decreased’ answers together, it’s really bad–three out of four people got it wrong; if we grade more strictly, only one out eleven knew the correct answer.

Update: The same point, with lots of city by city detail here. Excerpt: "In New York City, for example, the number of murders so far this year is down 85 percent relative to 1993. Last year, murders were down 83 percent relative to 1990. You have to ask yourself: When avatars of the right like Charlie Kirk proclaim that the city is intensely scary, is that a reflection of the city or of Charlie Kirk?

Murders, happily, are down in American cities. But there’s a lot of investment and political utility in suggesting that they are not. Americans, unfortunately, tend to believe it."