Tuesday, March 31, 2020

Radical Imagination: Imagining How the World of Finance Really Works

  Posted in nakedcapitalism.com on March 30, 2020 by Yves Smith

Yves here. Get a cup of coffee. Another meaty chat with Michael Hudson, who focuses here on the role of finance in rent extraction.

An important theme here that Hudson has stressed before is the mistaken perception of home “ownership”. Only about 1/3 of homes in America are owned free and clear. For the rest, the banks, or mortgage trusts, hold a senior position as mortgage lenders. And over the decades, they have become far less accommodating when homeowners are late even on a single payment. Even worse, insiders have reported that mortgage servicers will even hold payments to assure that they are late, which typically leads to compounding charges that virtually assure a foreclosure. Borrowers also face Kafkaesque obstacles to clearing up errors when they unquestionably paid on time.

To put it another way, as Josh Rosner put it in the early 2000s. “A home with no equity is a rental with debt.” That can be generalized to homes with little equity. 





Radical Imagination: Imagining How the World of Finance Really Works 


Radical Imagination host Jim Vrettos interviews Professor Michael Hudson, Economist, Wall St. Analyst, Political Consultant, Commentator and Journalist; who offers his views in the way finance works

Welcome, welcome once again to the Radical imagination. I’m your host, Jim Vrettos. I’m a sociologist who’s talked at John Jay College of Criminal justice and Yeshiva University here in New York. Our guest today, on the Radical Imagination, is one of only eight economists named by the Financial Times who foresaw the credit crisis and ensuing great recession erupting in 2008. It was conventional wisdom at the time to say that no one saw the gravity of the crisis coming, including almost every leading economist and financier in the world.

In fact, many had seen it coming. It was seen by everyone except economists from Wall Street; as our guest put it. They were ignored by an establishment according to then, the Federal Reserve chairman Alan Greenspan that watched with innocent quote-unquote shock disbelief as its whole intellectual edifice collapsed in the summer of 2007.

Official models missed the crisis not because the conditions were so shockingly unusual, they missed it by design because the world they lived in was not a world of how finance really works. They missed it because their mathematical models made it impossible to warn against a debt-deflation recession.

Their innocent model worlds were worlds where debt simply did not exist. It’s a world that most of our economic policymakers still live in, and it’s no wonder that everyday people see most economists far removed from their practical economic concerns and interests their everyday concrete reality. Our guest today is an internationally renowned economist who’s followed a much different path of interest and concern.

Michael Hudson is a distinguished research professor of economics at the University of Missouri, Kansas City, a researcher at the Levy Economics Institute at Bard College, a former Wall Street analyst; political consultant to governments on finance and tax policy, a popular commentator sought after speaker and journalist.

He identifies himself as a Marxist economist. But his interpretation of Karl Marx that differs in most other major Marxists. He believes parasitical forms of finance have warped the political economy of modern capitalism. History has regressed back to a neo- feudal system. He’s also a contributor to the Hudson report, a weekly economic and financial news podcast produced by Left Out.

His many books include Killing the Host, J is for Junk Economics,The Bubble and Beyond, Super Imperialism, and “… and Forgive Them Their Debts.” Michael has devoted his entire scientific career to the study of debt —both domestic and foreign, loans and mortgages, and interest payments.

In 2006 he argued that debt deflation would shrink the real economy, drive down real wages and push our debt-ridden economy into a Japan-style stagnation or worse. And just for reference, the typical American household now carries an average debt of over $137,000 up from $50,000 or so in 2000. The average American has about $38,000 in personal debt, excluding home mortgages.

The average credit card debt per U.S. household is $8,500, and outstanding student loans are at an all-time high, in 2019, of $1.41 trillion, a 33 percent spike since 2014, and a 6 percent increase from 2018. Only 23 percent of the population say they carry no debt. As Hudson presciently puts it, debts grow and grow, and the more they grow, the more they shrink the economy.

When you shrink the economy, you shrink the ability to pay the debts. So, it’s an illusion that the system can be saved. The question is, how long are people going to be willing to live in this illusion? Every day people have to face reality. Our economic policymakers urgently need to get it too.

So welcome Michael to The Radical Imagination. Thank you very, very much for coming here and being with us. Your work is so interesting; it’s so new and different. You’re a Marxist economist and yet…

[Michael] I’m a classical economist…

[Jim] You are classical, ok.

[Michael] Marx was the last great classical economist. Classical economics basically runs from the French Physiocrats through Adam Smith via John Stuart Mill to Marx.

[Jim] Along with Ricardo.

[Michael] Yes, they were all talking about the rentiers. In their time the landed aristocracy were the main rent recipients. But Adam Smith also talked about monopoly rent. And finance was the major monopoly. And today, the role of the landlords played in the 19th century of stifling industrial capitalism is being played by the banks and the rest of the financial sector. Right now the collectors of land rent, which was the main focus of the labor theory of value to isolate what was unnecessary, is being paid to the banks as mortgage interest.

[Jim] Right

[Michael] So, we no longer have a small privileged private landlord class when you have 80 percent of the European population and two thirds of the American population being homeowners. However, they have to pay the equivalent of the rental value of their housing to the bank, in the form of mortgage interest.

[Jim] To the banks, right!

[Michael] My analysis follows from classical economics, as did Marx’s analysis. So Marx is simply the last great classical economist. They were all talking about how industrial capitalism sought to free itself from unnecessary costs of production, and hence how its political fight was against the landlord class and other rent extractors. Where Marx went beyond his predecessors was in looking at the laws of motion of industrial capitalism. He saw these as leading toward socialism. Later, Rosa Luxemburg said that if it’s not towards socialism, it will be toward barbarism.

[Jim] So capitalism would evolve into the possibility of socialism.

[Michael] Yes.

[Jim] Did he foresee the sort of predatory financial system that you worked out?

[Michael] No one described it better in his time than Marx, in Volume III of Capital.

[Jim] Volume III. Ok!

[Michael] Marx analyzed the “real” economy’s circular flow between employers and wage labor buying the products they produced. But then, in Volume III, he said that rentier debt claims by the financial sector was a separate dynamic, independent from the economy of production and consumption. This industrial capitalist economy is wrapped in a financial sector composed of debt and property claims. These are external to the economy. They slow it and ultimately cause a crash. Marx was one of the first to talk about business cycles of about 11 years and the internal contradictions that led to a market collapse. He pointed out that the financial sector had different mathematics of growth – the mathematics of compound interest. These are exponential and inherently unsustainable. In Volume III of Capital and also of his Theories of Surplus Value– which was Marx’s history of economic thought and the theories leading up to him – he collected everything from Martin Luther to other analyses pointing out that debts grew so rapidly at compound interest that it is impossible to pay them.

[Jim] You have a great chart where you talk about compound interest, a penny that was invested at 5% interest from Christ’s time to 1776.

[Michael] Richard Price was an actuarial accountant. He calculated that a penny saved that at the time of Jesus’s birth at 5% interest would become a solid sphere of gold extending from the sun out to the planet of Jupiter.

[Jim] Amazing.

[Michael] Obviously, many people did save pennies at the time of Christ, and the annual interest rate then in Rome was 8 1/3%, one twelfth per year. But of course nobody has a sphere of gold extending out to Jupiter. That’s because debts that can’t be paid, won’t be.

That’s basically my motto: Debts, that can’t be paid, won’t be paid, because there’s no way of paying out of current income that grows much more slowly, tapering off.

[Jim] Right!

[Michael] So debts have to be written down. It usually takes the form of a financial crash. Nobody before Marx explained crashes in terms of the financial claims growing and causing a break in the chain of payments. The actual break could be a result of fraud or embezzlement, or a bad crop, because crashes happened in the autumn when the crops were moved and there was a drain of money from the banks to pay for moving the crop and paying the harvesters. But at least a crash wiped out debts, and then the debt buildup could begin all over again.

[Jim] But in pre-industrial civilizations that didn’t occur did it? We want to play a short little clip from your book, “… and Forgive Them Their Debts,” in which you talk about the debt phenomenon in primitive or pre-industrial civilizations, very different than what we’ve experiencing today, correct?

[Michael] That’s right. You mentioned the Financial Times report of the economists who did see the crash coming. I was the only one who actually made a chart showing why the break had to come. The Financial Time review was by Dirk Bezemer, who showed the chart that I published in a Harper’s magazine, based on an earlier paper I’d given at the University of Missouri at Kansas City for one of our Minsky Conferences.

[Jim] Let’s play this. It’s a two-minute clip on what you talking about, and debt within pre-industrial societies.

[Clip]

[Michael] Economists don’t talk much about religion or society, or how these concerns shape markets. Theologians for their part act as if religion is all about heaven and sex, so debt is left out. Yet it used to be at the core of Judaism, Christianity, and earlier Near Eastern religion.

[Host] Why is that? If religious leaders are interested in social justice, as Jesus was, it you have to talk about economics.

[Michael] I think part of the reason is that when they translated the Bible into English, German and the vernacular, they didn’t know what many of the words originally meant, like deror (for the Jubilee Year), or how to distinguish between “sin” and “debt” as originally a reparations payment for sin. They didn’t understand that most of the Bible was redacted by the returnees from the Babylonian captivity, who brought back this concept of debt cancellation, “andurarum” – Clean Slate. The Hebrew word was “deror.” In the Bible, you’ll have other words or terms for the Clean Slate, the Jubilee year of Leviticus 25, such as “Year of the Lord” in Jesus’s first sermon.

They didn’t realize that the word “gospel” was the “good news.” That good news was that there was going to be a debt cancellation. They didn’t realize that the Ten Commandments were very largely about debt; that “one shall not covet the neighbor’s wife,” that means you don’t make a loan to the guy so he has to pledge his wife as a debt slave to her so that you can have your way with her.

[Jim] But ordinarily that just gets translated as adultery.

[Michael] Yes, but they didn’t realize that the vehicle for this immorality was largely debt bondage. “Thou shalt not take the Lord’s name in vain” meant that a creditor couldn’t swear that so-and-so owes you money if he didn’t. All of this had to do with fact that the great destabilizing factor in society in the first millennium BC was debt beyond the ability to be paid, leading to bondage of the debtor, and ultimately forfeiture of land to wealthy creditors eager to grab it and do as Isaiah accused, join plot to plot and house to house until there were no more people left in the land.

[Jim] “No more people left in the land.” This is an incredible narrative. Please flesh out the narrative so that we can understand what was going on at that time.

[Michael] In order to explain the dynamics of debt in early times, you have to explain how the overall economic system worked as part of the social system. Most people ran into debt not by borrowing, but simply by not being able to pay the taxes or other payment obligations that accrued. These debts weren’t the result of loans. Most personal debts in Sumer and Babylonia were owed to the palace, so when the crops failed or there was a military fighting they couldn’t pay what they owed to the bureaucracy of tax collectors or for public services.

[Jim] Who were working for the palace.

[Michael] Yes. The rulers had a choice at this point: Either they could let the debtor fall into bondage when he couldn’t pay the tax collectors or the palace. If that happened, he’d owe the crop surplus to the creditor, not the palace.

He owed his payment in labor. That was the scarce resource in antiquity. He’d owe his labor to the creditor, so he couldn’t serve in the army, or do corvee work to build infrastructure or palace walls.

So rulers canceled these personal debts to regain control over agrarian labor and its crop surplus. Every new ruler who took the throne in Sumer and Babylonia started the reign with an amnesty, a Clean Slate to start from a position of balance in Year One. During their subsequent reign, if the crops failed or if there was a military conflict, the ruler would cancel consumer debts (but not commercial debts among businessmen for foreign trade or similar enterprise). That’s in the laws of Hammurabi, cancelled Babylonian debts four times. It’s obvious that if you’re at war or if the crops are hurt, cultivators can’t pay the loans.

What early modern scholars could not believe, until our Harvard group began to compile the economic history of antiquity, that canceling such debts actually was what maintained stability. We began our Harvard group in the 1990’s , and we’ve published five colloquia volumes of the origins of economic enterprise in the ancient Near East, on land tenure, urbanization, debt, and debt cancellation.

Our researches showed that as soon as you had interest-bearing debts (mainly in the commercial sphere), you had debt cancellation for the personal agrarian debts. Business debts were not canceled because the merchants were also citizens, so no matter what, all citizens had their designated self-support land. So only the barley debts were canceled; not the personal debts. We showed that rulers canceled the debts because number one, they were canceling debts owed to themselves. It’s politically easy to forgive a debt if it’s owed to you. But it’s more difficult if there is an oligarchy and debts are owed to private creditors.

Canceling crop debts was what maintained economic stability without mass bankruptcy, which would have meant that a lot of debtors would have ended up as bond servants to their creditors. It also maintained demographic staility, because otherwise, debtors would have run away and joined another community. Many did run away after Babylonia fell in 1600 BC. Four centuries later we find them joining the hapiru, which many people connected to the Hebrews. They were sort of gangs of laborers who also would do a little bit of piracy or serve as mercenaries. Their own groups were very egalitarian, just as pirates were egalitarian in their own ranks in the 18th century West.

With the hapiru you find for the first time an ideology saying that they were not going to let themselves fall into debt to the rich or to landlords. Their ranks were joined by fugitives walking out. Of course, that’s how Rome came to be settled under its “kings,” and what the Roman commoners did 594 BC after the kings were overthrown. The oligarchy took over, and tried to reduce the Roman population to bondage. You had numerous Secessions of the Plebs, for instance, again when the oligarchy broke its word by 449 BC.

[Jim] the aim was to forgive all the debts, just as in the Bible, right?

[Michael] When the Bible really was edited and put together by the Jews who were coming back from Babylonia, they brought back with them many Babylonian practices.

[Jim] So, they had learned from that experience . . .

[Michael] At that time all the Near Eastern kingdoms, even the Neo-Assyrian and Neo-Babylonian empires had rulers who continued to proclaim Clean Slates.

[Jim] The Persians and so on. But that tradition didn’t survive into modern times, although it became a tradition within the old Judaism.

[Michael] And also the original preachings of Jesus. Leviticus 25 projected the practice all the way back to the commandments of Moses. But there’s not very much documentation of Judaism after the compilation of the Jewish Bible, because the Judeans didn’t write on clay tablets, they wrote on perishable materials that haven’t survived. The little that did survive was the sacred library of Jerusalem, which became the Dead Sea Scrolls. When the Romans came, they took the library and they put it in pots. We now have many of these scrolls. One was a midrash, a collection of all of the biblical passages about debt cancellation, including those of the prophets.

[Jim] Interesting!

[Michael] So we know that by the time of Jesus, there was an active popular demand for another Jubilee. But meanwhile, within Judaism itself, the wealthiest families became the rabbinical school. Luke’s description of Jesus in the New Testament said that the Pharisees loved money. They became the rabbinical school of Hillel. Luke said that Jesus went back to the temple in his hometown to give a sermon, and unrolled the scroll of Isaiah to read the passage about the Year of the Lord – meaning the Jubilee Year – and said, that he had come to proclaim this year. That was his destiny.

Early translators of the Bible just read “the Year of the Lord” without realizing that this meant the Jubilee Year, deror, a debt cancellation. Luke immediately says a lot of families got very angry and chased Jesus out of town. They didn’t like his message. The Pharisees in particular got upset, and complained to the Roman that Jesus wanted to be King. Well, the reason they said was that they knew that Rome hated kingship. Roman tradition as written by Livy and by Dionysius and Halicarnassus described Servius as cancelling the debts, and most other kings of trying to keep the oligarchy in its place. Rome grew by making itself a haven for immigrants, whom they attracted precisely by keeping the oligarchy in its place.

[Jim] But they also had an empire. . .

[Michael] We are talking before the eighth to sixth centuries BC. But then the oligarchs took over and throughout the rest of Roman history down to the empire, the great fear was that somebody would do what the kings did: cancel the debts and redistribute the land to the poor. Julius Caesar was killed for “seeking kingship,” meaning that the Senate worried that he was going to cancel the debts after decades of civil warfare over this issue and the assassination of Catiline and other advocates of debt cancellation.

[Jim] And people will be free from their economic bondage

[Michael] Yes. Even many rich people were behind Catiline, who led the revolt a generation before Caesar, who actually seems to have been an early sponsor of Catiline. We’re talking about 62 to 64 BC; Caesar was killed in 44 BC.

So to make a long story short, what made the West “Western” was that it was the first society not to cancel the debts. It was to prevent this that oligarchies opposed a central authority. We don’t find any sign of debt in Greece and Rome until about 750 B.C. It was brought by near Eastern traders, along with standardized calendrically based weights and measures, ritual and religious practices. They set up temples as trading vehicles. For thousands of years, traders had set up local temples to act as a sort of Chamber of Commerce, to negotiate trade. In Greece, and Rome at that time there were chieftainships, which began to adopt the patronage practices of extending loans to the population, and then taking the payment and labor.

These dependency relationships are what made Western civilization different from what went before. There was no palatial economy, no state authority to override the oligarchy, cancel debts, redistribute land or liberate citizens who had been reduced to bondage as a result of their debt.

[Jim] You’re talking about the Middle Ages as well, feudalism?

[Michael] No, I’m talking about Greece and Rome in contrast to the Near Eastern mixed economies that were palatial as well as private. There was much private mercantile enterprise in Sumer. Its foreign trade was largely left to private enterprise (with the palace being a major customer, to be sure), so, these were mixed economies, as the five volumes that our Harvard group published have shown.

[Jim] This is all contained in your book “… and Forgive Their Debts.”

[Michael] Yes.

[Jim] So this is what is crucial to understanding lending, foreclosure and redemption from the Bronze Age finance to the Jubilee.

[Michael] Yes.

[Jim] This is a fascinating history. Can we bring it up to date, including issues of militarization and empire and imperialism in the 20thcentury, World Wars I and II? What are some of the things that occurred, the inception of the World Bank and the IMF? How did America control and attempt to defend its empire by using debt leverage?

[Michael] Already in Greece and Rome there was a linkage between debt and militarization. A Greek general, Tacticus in the third century BC, wrote a book of military tactics. He said that if you want to conquer a town, the way to take it over is to promise to cancel the debts. The population will come over to your side. And conversely, he said, if you’re defending a town, cancel the debts and they’ll support you against the attacker. So that was one of the reasons that debts tended to be canceled by one group or another. It’s what Coriolanus did, and then he went back on his word in Rome. That’s what Zedekiah did in Judea. Well, today it’s different. Here you have the imposition of a military force – really NATO – to enforce debt collection, not only from individuals but on debt entire countries. The job of the World Bank and IMF is to impose such heavy debt service on countries, and indeed to impose it in dollars, that countries have to earn these dollars to pay their debts. They can’t simply print the money to pay these debts like America can do. They have to obtain dollars by steadily lowering the price of their labor. But as yet there is no debt revolt.

[Jim] Because, when we went off the gold standard the American dollar became all powerful.

[Michael]Right.

[Jim] And we control 75% of the gold reserves?

[Michael] By the end of World War II, we controlled 75%, right.

[Jim] These are tremendous transformations in the world economy. The IMF and World Bank have supposedly developed through the UN for development, but as you argue, it’s more to create dependency.

[Michael] The World Bank is effectively part of the Defense Department. Their heads are usually former Secretaries of Defense, from John J McCloy, the first president, to McNamara and subsequent heads. What the United States discovered is that you don’t need to go to war to control other countries. If you can have them accept the assumption that all debts should be paid, they will voluntarily submit to austerity, which is class warfare against their own labor force. They will continue to devalue their currency …

[Jim] And create puppet governments that will support that as surrogates.

[Michael] Yes. What the free market boys at the University of Chicago discovered is that you can’t have a pro-financial free market – free of government regulation and its own public infrastructure and credit system – unless you’re prepared to assassinate everyone who wants a strong government. When they went to Chile and supported Pinochet, U.S. officials provided a list of who had to be killed – land reformers, labor leaders, socialists, and especially economics professors. They closed down every Economics Department in the country, except for the one at Catholic University, the right wing economics department teaching Chicago School neoliberalism. So, you have to be totalitarian in order to impose a free market pro-financial style – which, under today’s circumstances, means pro-US.

[Jim] It’s occurring across Latin America, right?

[Michael] Yes. A free market means libertarianism and totalitarian government. What the Chicago boys and the so-called New Institutional Economics school calls the rule of contracts. You have the history of Western civilization now being taught almost everywhere as if what created civilization was the rule of contracts, not canceling the debts. So, you’ve created an inside-out view of history. Its aim is to deny the fact that the only way that you can prevent the kind of economic slowdown that we’re having in America now is to write down the debts. If you don’t write down the debts, you’re internal market will shrink and you’re going to end up looking like Greece, or like France with all the riots that they are having there, or like the other countries that are rioting because they don’t want to be turned into a Neo-feudal society.

[Jim] This seems to be occurring in Puerto Rico as well. So what becomes more profitable for American economy is the military and the armaments that we ship and use in all these adventurers wars that we have in the 800 hundred US military bases around the world.

[Michael] The difference is that in the past when you had militarism, you actually had to fight a war. Soldiers had to go in. You know the old joke about wine that’s being sold in an auction. It’s a hundred-year-old bottle and is very, very expensive. A rich guy buys it and pours it out to impress his friends, but it tastes like vinegar. He complains to the auction house, but is told, “Oh, that’s not wine for drinking! That’s for trading!” That’s what most U.S. arms are for: not really to use. You’re never again going to get Americans to be drafted and go into the army to actually, use them. These arms are not for fighting; they’re for making profits. Seymour Melman explained that in Pentagon Capitalism.

[Jim] The permanent war economy.

[Michael] That’s right. Meaning more profits for the military industrial complex. You don’t actually use the arms. You just pay to produce them and throw them away. It’s like what Keynes talked about, building pyramids in order to create domestic purchasing power.

[Jim] And you can’t, as Melman tried to do, use economic conversion to more civilian uses. That never happened.

[Michael] Seymour Melman explained that the U.S. government decided to make a different kind of a contract with the arms manufacturers. It’s called cost-plus. As he summarized it, the government guarantees them a profit, but to prevent monopoly rents, they determined the prices to be paid at, say, ten percent over the actual cost of production. This led the arms-makers to see that if their profits were going to rise in keeping with the cost of production, they wanted as high of a cost of production as possible.

So, the engineers working on the American military industrial complex aimed at maximizing costs. That’s how we got toilet seats that cost $650.

Countries that don’t have Pentagon capitalism, like Russia or China, are able to produce weaponry that outshines America. Even broke Iran, can make missiles that apparently get right through the U.S. defenses in Syria and Iraq, because they don’t have cost-plus. They’re trying to be efficient, not just to have an excuse for making money via a cost-plus contract.

[Jim] How do we turn this around? You’ve made the connections to show that everyday people and their lives are profoundly impacted by the unreal world that the financial predators are creating.

[Michael] Reality isn’t the aim of their economic models. For instance, just today I saw Paul Krugman on Democracy Now. He said that the reason we’re in a depression is because President Obama did not run a large enough budget deficit! He’s a Keynesian, but goes so far as to insist that debt has no role to play in deflating the economy. That’s largely because Krugman serves in effect as a bank lobbyist – not only here, but in Iceland and other countries. To me, the current economic squeeze is that Obama didn’t let the banks collapse. He kept the bad he debts on the books instead of treating them as bad loans to be absorbed by the banks that wrote the junk mortgages and lost in their speculative gambles.

[Jim] And ate the homeowners!

[Michael] Yes. He kept their bad, outrageously priced loans on the books and evicted 10 million families. He called them “the mob with pitchforks,” and Hillary called them “deplorables.” That shows you where the Democratic Party is at, and why it was so easy for Donald Trump to make a left wing run around the Democratic Party. That is how right wing Obama was. His legacy was Donald Trump, via Hillary Clinton.

[Jim] Krugman is the most well-known so-called Keynesian economist in the country, right?

[Michael] The reason he’s so well-popularized by the pro-financial class is precisely because he doesn’t understand money. So bank lobbyists love him and he’s popularized by the right-wing New York Times. He had a wonderful debate with Steve Keen that anybody can see on Google, where he says that it’s impossible for banks to create money and credit. He thinks that banks are savings banks, and they’re just relending deposits. Steve Keen explained what endogenous money is. That’s what we talk about in Modern Monetary Theory.

[Jim] And the Wall Street Journal.

[Michael] And the Washington Post. They go together. They don’t want economists to be popular who talk about debt and why the debts can’t be paid or the need for a debt write down. Krugman attacks Bernie Sanders as if he is an unbelievable radical for backing public medical care.

[Jim] On February 17, Krugman wrote a column “Have Zombies eaten Bloomberg’s and Buttigieg Brains?” He said “My book is arguing with zombies.” And one of the zombies is his obsession with public debt and the belief that we should be terribly scared of government debt, can’t do anything because of deficits. Eeek! And that’s the way Buttigieg talks. The very moment when mainstream economics, if you like centrist economics, has concluded that these debt worries, were way overblown. The president of American Economic Association gave this presidential address saying that debt is not nearly the problem people think it is. It’s not a constraint, and of course, Republicans have pulled off one of the greatest acts of policy hypocrisy in history – you know, the existential deficit threat. I don’t want to see a democratic centrist bring us into this deficit scaremongering. That would be a really bad thing that would block any kind of initiative.

So, what does the everyday person make of this debate? And what’s the attraction of Trump his message to people who feel that their real-world needs are being addressed?

[Michael] I think the reason people voted for Trump’s was mainly Hillary. She said that voters should vote for the lesser evil. There was no question who the “lesser evil” was. It was Donald Trump. Did you want World War III, or Donald Trump? It’s not a very nice choice, but Hillary’s viciously right-wing, especially where Russia is concerned. The Democratic National Committee and deep state are all about Russia, Russia, Russia! And calling Trump Putin’s puppet.

Then finally the Mueller report came out and found nothing there! So you can view the Democratic Party as the political arm of the military industrial complex and the banking complex.

[Jim] And Obama totally propped them up. But now, Bernie! What about him? The Democratic establishment is against him, and so is the Republican establishment.

[Michael] If the enemy of my enemy is my friend, then Bernie’s enemies are the Democratic Party establishment and the Democratic National Committee. So of course a lot of people are going to love him.

[Jim] Yup. He wants to cancel student debt! He is talking your language!

[Michael] If the student debt is not canceled, you’re going to have a generation of graduates unable to get the mortgage loans to buy homes, because they’re already paying their income to the banks.

[Jim] They’re living at home!

[Michael] That means that you’re going to have a shrinking economy. So of course you have to write down student debt, and also other forms of debt – credit card debt and other debt. The economy cannot recover if you don’t write down the debt overhead.

The good thing about writing down the debts is that you wipe out the savings on the other side of the balance sheet. Some 90 percent of the debts in America are owed to the wealthiest 10 Percent. So the problem is not only the debt; it’s all these savings of the One Percent! The world is awash in their wealth. If you don’t wipe out their financial claims – which are the basis of their wealth – they’re going to take you over and become the new financial Lords, just like the feudal landlords. The banks are the equivalent of the Norman invasion. and the conquering landlords that reduce the economy to a peonage!

[Jim] But the moral argument is made that they’re the best. They’ve survived, right? I’m playing devil’s advocate here. So they serve a purpose, don’’ they? Their wealth is a sign that the system is working.

[Michael] That’s not what Adam Smith and John Stuart Mill said, or Ricardo and the entire 19th century classical economic school. They said that economic rent is unearned income. So the aristocracy (“the best”) doesn’t earn it. It is a result of privilege, which almost always is inherited wealth or monopoly privilege, that is, the right to appropriate something that really should be public. Land ownership and mining should be public wealth, as are mineral resources in much of the world. Education should be public. People shouldn’t have to pay for it. The idea initially in the United States was that education should be free as a human right. Medical care is also, as Bernie says, a human right, as it is in a lot of the world. So America, which people used to think was the most progressive capitalist country, suddenly becoming the most neo-feudal economy.

[Jim] How about Max Weber and the Protestant ethic as the spirit of capitalism? The argument is made that those who are productive are rewarded by heaven, while those who are poor deserve it. Wealth was a sign that God had bestowed his grace on its owner.

[Michael] That sort of the patter talk a century ago hasn’t stood up very well. The wealthy claim to be wealthy because God loves them. If they can convince other people that God loves them and hates the rest of the people, they make God into the devil. They make him hate the working class, and make them dependent on this unnecessary class of parasites. That’s crazy! But that’s what happens if you let the wealthy take over religion. Of course, they’re going to say that religion justifies their wealth.

That’s what makes modern religion the opposite of the religion that I described in the Bronze Age. Upon taking the throne, rulers took a pledge to the gods to restore equity and cancel the debts. That included restoring lands that had been forfeited, giving it back to the defaulting debtors to re-establish order. That was the idea of religion back then. But today’s religion has become a handmaiden of wealth and privilege, and of “personal responsibility” to make people pay for education, health care, access to housing and other basic things that should be a public right.

[Jim] Which is what preoccupies the average American, when seventy percent of their earnings are going to these sorts of things, and for taxes and rent. I have a brief quote here from Martin Luther King, who I think represents the sort of religious tradition you’re advocating. He had been deeply influenced by the theologian, Walter Rauschenbusch and his 1907 book, Christianity and the Social Crisis.

[Michael] Read it, so that so they can hear it.

[Jim] Here’s the main quote: “The gospel at its best deals with the whole man; not only his soul, but his body; not only the spiritual well-being, but his material well-being.” King wrote in an inspired passage, “any religion that professes to be concerned about the souls of men and is not concerned about the slums that damned them, the economic conditions that strangled them and the social conditions that crippled them is a spiritually moribund religion awaiting burial.”

[Michael] That’s right. Religion was about the whole economy. Not just a part of the economy. Today they’ve separated religion, as if only spiritual and has nothing to do with the economic organization of society. Religion used to be all about the economic organization of society. So, you’ve had a decontextualization of religion, taking away from analyzing society to justify the status quo by teaching that if things are the way they are, it’s because God wants it this way. That’s saying that God wants the wealthy and privileged to exploit you, especially by getting you into debt. And that’s just crap!

[Jim] And that gets us away from the classical tradition, which does try to see this as social.

[Michael] And that’s why Christian evangelicals hate Jesus so much.

[Jim] There you go! But we love Bernie! Can he win? We’ve only got about a minute to go …

[Michael] Of course he can.

[Jim] You think he will be able to withstand the onslaught that he’s going to get?

[Michael] A year ago I was pretty sure that the Democratic National Committee was going to put the super delegates in to sabotage any attempt that he was going to make to get the nomination. Now it’s clear that the Democratic Party will be torn apart, and this means the end of it if he’s not the nominee.

[Jim] All right! Well, from your mouth to God’s ears! Thank you, Michael. This has been so enlightening.

[Michael] Thank you.

[Jim] I’m so blessed that we are in the audience here too on the Radical Imagination. So happy to have had you here. I hope you’ll come back again. This is your most recent book, “… and Forgive Them Their Debts.” Thank you very much! This is Jim Vrettos for the Radical Imagination. See you next week. Thank you, Michael!

This entry was posted in Banana republic, Credit markets, Economic fundamentals, Guest Post, Income disparity, Politics, Social policy, Student loans, The destruction of the middle class, The dismal science on March 30, 2020 by Yves Smith.

Monday, March 30, 2020

Tax Justice and Modern Monetary Theory – A Guide

On Nakedcapitalism.com: Posted on March 30, 2020 by Yves Smith

Yves here. Aside from the fact that readers have indicated they’d like some breaks from COVID-19 programming, this post is important because it addresses what seems be a widely-held misperception of Modern Monetary Theory, namely, the role of tax.

Modern Monetary Theory scholars stress that tax is what legitimates a currency. Individuals and businesses must obtain it to settle their tax obligations to the state. They also point out that tax serves to drain demand, as in contain inflation. But Modern Monetary Theory proponents also (usually) point out that taxes also serve to provide incentives and disincentives and redistribute income. But they regard these as potential applications, as opposed to core to their theory.

As Modern Monetary Theory has started to be taken more seriously, critics have usually focused on either “This can’t work” or “ZOMG, free money, hyperinflation just around the corner!” That has led Modern Monetary Theory scholars to focus on the necessary purposes of tax in their system, validating the currency and curbing inflation, to the detriment of acknowledging the other important roles that taxation can play.

Another area for potential confusion is not recognizing the difference between a currency issuer (the US, the UK, the Eurozone) versus currency users (Italy, countries that have dollarized their currencies or borrowed in foreign currencies).

Having said that, I think Modern Monetary Theory proponents have made acceptance of their ideas a bit more difficult by not drawing a bright line between their theory, which is a description of how government spending works in a fiat currency system, versus what they believe are resulting sound policy approaches, such as setting the price of labor (a Job Guarantee) rather than the price of money.

By Richard Murphy, a chartered accountant and a political economist. He has been described by the Guardian newspaper as an “anti-poverty campaigner and tax expert”. He is Professor of Practice in International Political Economy at City University, London and Director of Tax Research UK. He is a non-executive director of Cambridge Econometrics. He is a member of the Progressive Economy Forum. Originally published at Tax Research UK
There seems to be the most, and quite extraordinary, lack of understanding of modern monetary theory and its interaction with tax in the tax justice world. John Christensen and Naomi Fowler of the Tax Justice Network and I were aware of this a year ago, and this blog and Taxcast were the result. I’m sharing both again because an appreciation that tax is not just about revenue raising, if it is about that at all, is absolutely fundamental now. Nick Shaxson added to the words:

Modern Monetary Theory (MMT) has gained prominence since the global financial crisis. The rising star US politician Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez said recently we should be “open” to its ideas, and some mainstream economists have given it a (qualified) endorsement. For many, it offers a powerful critique of the damaging austerity policies that were implemented in the western world since the global financial crisis, and an important plank of new progressive thought. MMT also has many critics.

For the tax justice movement, however, MMT opens an important debate about the role of tax. One of the MMTers’ central arguments — that governments don’t need tax revenues if they want to spend money — seems to conflict with our argument that governments must tax rich corporations and crack down on tax cheating and tax havens in order to pay for roads, schools, teachers and hospitals.

To illustrate this clash, take the words of UK Shadow Chancellor John McDonnell during the Panama Papers tax haven scandal that “every pound avoided in tax by the super-rich is a pound desperately needed by our National Health Service, our schools and our caring services.” We’d strongly agree with this statement — though Bill Mitchell, a prominent MMT economist, attacked it as a “dangerous and misguided narrative for progressives to engage in,” because it “fuels damaging myths” about how the tax and spending system works.

This blog asks some big questions about MMT. Is it ”correct“? If not, how not? But if so, is it compatible with tax justice – and could it even be useful? Is tax justice useful to MMT? We’ve given MMT a partial endorsement and suggest there is no real conflict between MMT and tax justice — that tax justice doesn’t especially need MMT, but without tax justice, MMT is incomplete. You can listen to a discussion here exploring these issues in this Taxcast Extra below: (our monthly podcast, the Taxcast is available here)

So What Is MMT Anyway?

There seem to be differing versions of MMT out there, but they contain a few core elements, three in particular. To understand the first part of the MMT canon, let’s start with another British politician, Theresa May, who once told an underpaid nurse she couldn’t have a pay rise because “there is no magic money tree.” We haven’t got the tax revenues, May was saying, to pay nurses a decent wage.

Her predecessor Margaret Thatcher, thrifty Germans, and many others, endorse this idea, which rests on the intuitively appealing notion that a government budget is like personal or household finances: that we need to earn money before we can spend it. This legitimises the alleged need to make “tough choices” (like paying wealth-creating nurses or teachers a pittance, while allowing wealth-extracting private equity titans to earn billions) and has underpinned vicious and counter-productive austerity policies around the world.

The tax justice movement doesn’t generally voice opinions about spending — our focus is on the revenue side of things — but we disagree with the “there is no magic money tree” worldview. We argue that there is a magic money tree or trees: one version of which would be “tax havens, multinational enterprises, and the mega rich.” If they stopped avoiding tax we could pay teachers better. In fact, we’ve even got a picture of one of these trees. It looks like the top section (or two sections) of this image, from the latest Credit Suisse World Wealth Report:




World Wealth Report 2018

(There are, conventionally speaking, other magic money trees – the debt markets, for instance: you borrow to pay for productive spending and investment — but let’s leave that aside for now).

MMTers take a different view. They also agree that there is a Magic Money Tree or trees, but they say it’s not in the tax havens: it’s elsewhere. Mitchell puts it, in a piece co-authored with Thomas Fazi:


The magic money tree does exist, but it’s located much closer to home than we think: in each country’s central bank, not on some faraway tropical island.”

In its crudest form, a central bank can use special papers, inks and a printer, to create money. A more sophisticated form of money creation is Quantitative Easing, where the central bank issues electronic money to buy real assets, simply by clicking the keys on a computer to credit someone’s bank account. (The private banking system can also create money, but again let’s not complicate things needlessly for now).

Governments that issue their own currencies can’t really “run out of money” since they can always create more if needed. Money is created first, and tax comes later. And spending and taxes don’t necessarily have to match. So that’s the first MMT concept: the idea that money can be conjured out of thin air. This idea isn’t really controversial either: the Bank of England has even endorsed a version of it. The tax justice community doesn’t need to generally disagree with it either — and this blog describes a framework that happily includes both varieties of the magic money tree.

But one also has to be careful here, because such thinking could encourage people to think ‘if governments can just create money, what’s the point of tax?’ Well, as we’ll see, tax serves a whole range of crucial purposes. MMTers tend to obsess about just one of them — which is the second MMT concept.



Just weird?

To grasp this, consider the curious words on a £5 note, under ‘Bank of England.’ It says “I promise to pay the bearer on demand the sum of five pounds.”

What could that mean? If you give the bank five pounds, they’ll give you five pounds back? This seems tautological and, frankly, a bit weird.

But in fact this goes to the essence of what money is. This bluish-green piece of paper isn’t worth anything in itself — nor is gold. They are only worth something because enough other people believe they are worth something, and are prepared to exchange them for real resources.

But why do we collectively believe they are worth something? Just because everyone else does? Isn’t this a bit fragile? Wouldn’t this confidence, and the value of money, evaporate if everyone got the jitters for some reason? Why would a soldier go off and risk his life in a foreign war, in exchange for these weird paper (or electronic) will-o-the-wisps?

Well, the MMTers explain, we believe in these pieces of paper ultimately because the currency has a large and stable anchor, which is the biggest player of all: the government. It will ultimately accept these pieces of paper, or electronic money, as payment of tax. For MMTers, the purpose of tax here isn’t to fund spending: it’s to provide that essential role tying money to something solid. Again, people in the tax justice movement don’t need to disagree with this idea, either, as far as it goes. It’s not wrong – although there aren’t many policy makers who think about tax in this way.

The third MMT principle follows on from this. A government, or your central bank, can’t just create money, willy-nilly, to pay for anything they fancy. An economy is essentially a circular flow of spending, production and income, but if you start flushing enough freshly-minted money into a system that’s nicely in balance, this might lead to Venezuela-ish hyperinflation, or a currency collapse, or some other unstable thing. Equally, if there’s too little money in the system there may be stagnation and under-employment. So, responsible governments should aim first to create sufficient money to make things go around in healthy ways, but when things go too fast use other tools, including (but not only) increasing taxes to withdraw money from circulation.

How does tax take money out of the system? Well, in a sense, tax destroys money. It is a bit like a cinema ticket: the cinema prints it, and it’s worth something in your hands as a temporary store of value — and then as a medium of exchange when you hand the ticket in just before you get your popcorn and take your seat. But when the usher takes your ticket, they tear it up and throw it in the bin. Having served its purpose, it can be dispensed with. This is essentially what happens when the government receives your tax payment.

Tax and money creation, the MMTers argue, are key tools for fine-tuning the amount of money whooshing around in your economy, to help keep it in the Goldilocks zone: not too hot, and not too cold. In very general terms, we don’t need to disagree that this happens — though again, this does not fit with how tax policy-makers generally think about tax.

Is MMT Right? Can It agree With the Tax Justice Movement?

These insights from MMT show that (i) spending comes before taxes, (ii) spending can happily outstrip revenue, and (iii) that while fiscal deficits (that is, more spending than revenue) do matter in some circumstances, there’s plenty more flexibility in the system than most people realise. So MMT is helpful as a political tool to push back against austerity.

We don’t disagree with MMT’s core principles. And we’re not alone. In the recent words of the (mainstream) US economist Brad DeLong, MMT “is a good gospel . . . much better than the ravings of those yahoos, including President Obama, who said nearly a decade ago that the United States government needed to freeze spending because it needed to tighten its belt just as American households had been forced tighten theirs.” In most ways, he summarised, MMT is “just macroeconomic common sense.”

But there are, as we’ve hinted, objections to MMT, from others, and from us. First, from others:

For one thing, MMTers admit that there are situations where it simply doesn’t apply. For example, unstable countries where people lack confidence in the state aren’t stable enough to serve as reliable currency anchors. Sometimes, an anchor is provided by pegging the shaky currency to another solid currency like the US dollar, or their economies become “dollarised” (which is when most people prefer to trade in dollars rather than in the local currency.) These governments can’t always create the money they need, and such countries have little alternative other than to match revenue and spending pretty closely, or risk bad things happening, like hyperinflation (one of your writers has lived through such times, in Angola, and it isn’t nice.)

There may also be institutional reasons why revenue and spending can’t diverge, or can’t diverge very far, as MMTers also generally accept. Governments which use the Euro currency are institutionally constrained in terms of what they can and can’t spend relative to their tax revenues, and the European Union also requires its members to exhibit a fair degree of austerity, (which may explain such lacklustre growth in Europe for so many years).

Similarly, local and state governments in many countries generally can’t create their own money, and they are also often constitutionally constrained from spending beyond their local and state tax revenues. Vermont in the USA can’t issue dollars, nor can it easily ”spend now and tax later,” (though it has some flexibility.)

Another possible objection to MMT is that if it is to serve as a useful policy tool, it needs debt markets to be efficient and investors to be wise, so that when the supply of money moves out of line with demand in the economy, it will show up quickly in shifting interest rates or rises in unemployment, which can be promptly addressed. Hence, among other important things, MMT may struggle to deal with bubbles, manias and panics, which are all too common. (It’s not alone, in not having a panacea for these things.)

Some have urged MMT to consider the private banking system, rather than the central bank, as the prime creator of money, though MMT does accept this. Others say that MMTers tend to sweep central banks and treasuries into a single entity, ‘government,’ while in reality the two are typically independent of each other. Treasuries, which make tax and spending decisions, generally do ‘fund’ their spending with tax revenues, whereas central banks don’t.

These are all big wrinkles, though they don’t need to negate the whole edifice.

So Where Does MMT Meet Tax Justice?

Now let’s return to UK Shadow Chancellor John McDonnell’s statement that “every pound avoided in tax by the super-rich is a pound desperately needed by our National Health Service, our schools and our caring services,” — and its apparent clash with the MMT view that we don’t need to collect taxes in order to achieve our spending goals.

From a purely economic point of view the MMT argument is that governments need not collect a dollar in tax for every dollar they spend. That’s fine: almost any (sane) economist would agree. Governments (or central banks) can create money, and fiscal deficits are acceptable in principle, and often healthy, in practice. MMTers agree that fiscal deficits can matter (though, as they put it, “not in the way you think”), and also that if there’s too much money in circulation, higher taxes can help re-balance things. So there are important links between levels of tax and levels of spending, even for MMTers. That’s already a move away from the argument that taxes don’t fund spending.

But there’s a still closer connection between levels of tax and levels of spending. Taxes and spending are not just economic matters: they are intensely political. It’s not just Eurozone countries and dollarised economies that face tax-and-spend constraints: it’s everyone. You may disagree violently with the deficit scolds, austerian hysterians, Swabian Hausfraus, Big Banker budget surplus fiends, hyperinflation hyperventilators, monetarist maniacs or those blindly following the credo of the confidence fairy — but that doesn’t mean these powerful people and institutions don’t shape the political climate or constrain a government’s ability to run deficits. They very much do.

The political climate — along with judicious dollops of corrupt money injected into politics — dictate how far government spending is constrained by the levels of taxes. The constraints can be shifted — and MMT can help shift them in a helpful direction — but they are still real constraints. (There are also people who argue that MMT is operationally wrong about the link between taxes and spending, but this is outside of our area of expertise.)

But overall McDonnell was correct: more taxes make more spending possible, certainly by creating the political space for it, and MMTers should concede this. Their attack on “tax the rich to pay for teachers and firefighters” is ultimately a presentational issue for them. They don’t generally oppose taxing the rich. They just think this statement makes it harder for them to get their points across. That’s not a good reason to attack and undermine the case for taxing the rich.

Yet at this point we might also make a concession. Instead of saying:

“Taxes pay for schools, hospitals and firefighters”

we are comfortable with adding a word:

“Taxes help pay for schools, hospitals and firefighters.”

And we’d go further still. Since this stuff is so intensely political, and tackling inequality is now such a monumental task, we need stout political mechanisms to tackle it. And we know from long experience that the slogan “Tax the rich to help pay for schools and hospitals” is a transformationally powerful political slogan that builds support for using the tax system to achieve urgent, vital goals. When MMTers attack this linkage, whatever the rights and wrongs of their technical arguments they are politically wrong, introducing a dangerous and misguided narrative of their own.

But beyond these questions of the relative levels of taxes and spending, there is a more fundamental set of points that MMT needs to take on board. Tax doesn’t just serve one purpose: it serves many. And this is where there’s enormous scope for MMT to become more sophisticated — and more acceptable to the mainstream and the wider public. There’s no need for a fundamental clash between our positions and those of MMT.

The Six Rs of Tax

In 2005 and 2007 the Oxford Council on Good Governance published two papers by Alex Cobham, now the Tax Justice Network’s Executive Director. Alex decried the ‘Tax Consensus’ advocated at that time by the IMF and other global actors, as a subset of the well-known ‘Washington Consensus’, which was pushing many countries into austerity, privatisation and financial liberalisation: policies that have been largely discredited in light of all that’s happened since.

The Tax Consensus had an overwhelming focus on ‘efficiency’ (a tricky term at the best of times) and wasn’t bothered about inequality. It focused on persuading countries to lower taxes, to aim for a “neutral” tax system whose taxes shouldn’t distort production or consumption decisions, and argued that any redistribution should happen via spending, not via the tax system. Cobham attacked this tax consensus, and laid out what he called ‘The Four Rs of Taxation,’ which he summarised as:

Raising Revenue. The most obvious purpose of tax. We’ve laid out why the MMTers don’t like this message, because they say it gets the order of things the wrong way round, but also we’ve explained that more tax revenues at the very least create the political space, and even the economic space, for more spending on schools, hospitals etc.

Redistribution. The tax system in itself is a fine tool for tackling economic (and political, gender, racial, and other) inequalities. And to be fair, most MMTers already accept the idea that a tax system should be structured to levy taxes in progressive ways.

Repricing. Tax policy can also create incentives and disincentives to encourage or discourage desirable and undesirable things, like curbing smoking or alcoholism, tackling climate change, stimulating certain kinds of investment, discouraging excessive borrowing, curbing rent-seeking, and so on. (MMTers don’t reject this either.)

Representation. This is a crucial, and the most forgotten, function of tax. The central bargain at the heart of a fiscal system is reflected in the American colonists’ slogan of “no taxation without representation.” Citizens pay taxes as part of a grand social and democratic bargain, that government will be accountable to them in return. This has been shown empirically, and it’s direct taxes that seem to be most effective in generating strong accountability.

More recently, Richard Murphy has added two or three more ‘Rs’ to this list, explicitly to reflect modern monetary theory. These are:
 
Ratifying the value of money. That’s the anchor role discussed above: money has value because people have faith in it, and they have faith because they know government will accept it for tax payments.
 
Reclaiming money that has been created. That’s the cinema-ticket role: using the tax system to take back (and Retire, there’s an alternative R word) money that’s been created, to help regulate the economy and stop it overheating or stagnating.

MMTers tend to pay lip service to the Rs that they aren’t busy attacking. Yet each is crucial.

The Structure of a Tax System

MMTers’ main fight is about overall levels of taxes, relative to overall levels of spending. It is not, in general terms, a theory about how to put a tax system together, which in turn hinges on the all-important question of who pays – or how the tax charge is shared among different constituencies. Yet this is the core of our work. We and the MMTers are mostly fighting different battles, so we need not necessarily clash. And MMT creates interesting insights about tax. If a core purpose of tax is to take money out of circulation (or ”destroy money“) to prevent excessive inflation, then the wealthy should love tax, because inflation erodes the value of their assets. The problem we point out is, the wealthy want poorer people, and not them, to have their money taken out through tax.

We’ve noticed that few MMTers are experts on international tax, or tax havens, or on how to structure a good tax system. This gap can be remedied, without doing any damage to MMT itself, except for perhaps that one presentational issue. These are huge areas, so we’ll just take a couple of examples to demonstrate what we mean, and to show how MMT is compatible with tax justice.

The Corporate Tax, Its Many Roles, and the Many Misunderstandings

Take, for instance, the Corporate Income Tax, and some of the roles it plays, even beyond the six Rs of tax. Our document entitled Ten Reasons to Defend the Corporate Income Tax, and accompanying articles, lay out a range of benefits that the corporate tax provides, far beyond what most people would imagine – and even beyond the Four (or Six) Rs. In practice the corporate income tax is one of the most precious taxes of them all.

Here’s one of its functions — one that is strong enough on its own to justify the corporate tax, and indeed was a key reason why many countries introduced the tax in the first place: it is an essential backstop to the personal income tax. If we abolished the corporate tax or cut it severely, large numbers of people would opt to convert their ordinary income into corporate forms held by personal shell companies, so as to pay the lower rate. (Unless they take their income out as dividends, they can defer paying tax on it indefinitely — and often forever.)

So corporate tax cuts can cannibalise the (much larger) personal income tax. In fact, different parts of the tax system ‘spillover’ like this into other parts of the tax system, and onto other countries’ tax systems. (This new article by Andrew Baker of Sheffield Political Economic Research Institute, and Richard Murphy outlines a new framework for understanding these spillovers.) Modern Tax Theory should be able to incorporate these kinds of complexities in how tax systems work.

Not only that, but any theory which has tax at its heart also needs to consider the international dimension.

MMT, International Tax, and the Race to the Bottom

The tax system of Country A can harm the tax system of Country B (tax havens provide ample evidence of this.) A related matter is something that is widely called ‘tax competitiveness.’ Here’s an example from the US economist Randall Wray, a prominent MMTer. He said:

Taxing corporations is a bad idea. It causes corporations to move out of the US. Or to cut special deals: ’give me a tax break and I will build a factory in your community.’ We ought to get rid of the tax. Level the playing field . . . Instead, if we wanted to, we just tax the owners [of corporations.]”
And on taxing the rich, more generally, he said:

Trying to reduce inequality using taxes is not likely to be successful—because the rich influence the tax code and get exemptions. . . I argue for “predistribution”—prevent the growth of excessive income and wealth by . . . eliminat[ing] the practices that lead to inequality.”
These statements don’t generally represent an MMT position on how to structure a tax system or on international tax — there isn’t an easily categorisable position on these matters, as far as we can tell — but it does show how easy it is for MMTers to fall prey to bad old ideas.

Let’s start with the second one: in its purest form — don’t tax the rich because they’ll dodge the tax — is a counsel of despair: a special case of a more general statement: “let’s not try and subject the rich to the rule of law because they’ll use clever lawyers and accountants to escape it.” It’s a version of an argument we see all the time – don’t crack down on tax havens because it’s too difficult, or because the real problem is elsewhere.

These are dangerous, anti-democratic arguments — and we spurn them. Wray’s argument isn’t as stark as this, but he does veer towards the “either/or fallacy” – either we do one thing (raise taxes on the rich) or we do the other (“predistribution.”) Obviously, we should do both.

On corporation taxes Wray, like many MMTers, enters complex terrain without acknowledging enough of the functions of the tax, as laid out in our “10 Reasons to Defend the Corporate Income Tax” document. For one thing, the argument that it’s more efficient to stop taxing corporations and tax the owners of corporations directly, would entail a vast giveaway to the billionaire classes, for reasons outlined here. And his view that corporate taxes encourage corporations to relocate elsewhere is part of a misguided old ‘Competitiveness Agenda,’ laid out here, whose core argument is that we must keep piling tax cuts and other goodies on multinational corporations and mobile global capital, for fear they’ll run away to more ‘hospitable’ locations. This idea is woolly-headed nonsense, from top to bottom.

This takes us into complex terrain, so read this article and this book to get a fuller picture of what we’re talking about. But as a taster, here are a couple of killer problems with this view. When you cut taxes on multinational corporations, or provide them with other goodies, certain things happen, which are eminently measurable. Corporate profits rise, at least in the short term. And corporations may (or, more likely, may not) change their investment plans. Crucially, while the gross benefits that flow from corporate welfare are measurable, many of the costs aren’t. And here are some of those costs:
  • lower economic growth
  • rising inequality
  • greater financial volatility
  • larger too-big-to-fail banks
  • less competition, more monopolies
  • more crime and fraud
  • reduced efficiency of investment
  • damage to labour and jobs
  • less innovation
  • corporate cash hoarding

(Click here and associated links to see how each of these works, or refer to the “10 Reasons” document.)

What happens, however, is that traditional tax theorists will look at the measurable benefits of the corporate tax cuts – especially higher profits for corporations – and highlight them, but then airbrush out that much broader range of equally important costs because so many of them are hard or impossible to measure.

Because of this generic imbalance between measurable benefits and unmeasurable costs, a body of tax theory and measurement has grown up that promotes this view that is favourable to corporate tax cuts but isn’t rooted in the real world. As a result, many, if not most of the conventional (academic and other) views on corporate taxes are downright wrong: rooted in generic distortions to the measurements that will never go away. (For a more detailed look at this imbalance, see the “Evidence Machine” in the UK edition of the Finance Curse book.)

Modern Monetary Theory needs to grapple with these issues. Our thinking in this area is a progressive, internally coherent body of work, which encompasses tax havens, the structure of tax systems, crime, and plenty more. Pretty much all of it — tax justice, or Modern Tax Theory, if you like — doesn’t need to be seen as incompatible with Modern Monetary Theory.

___________

NB: This paper by me was one of the consequences of this, and was recognised by Randy Wray as a major contribution to debate on this issue.

The coronavirus anthology

Here are some of the coronavirus hits for handy reference:

Medical Advice

Korean Doctor describes how Korea did a better job:

New York Doctor's advice (reassuring)

David Ho, U.S. virus expert (says reinfection odds are low)

Dietary supplements


Yoga to stay healthy

Sivananda 90 minute routine:
This is one of the best, most empowering yoga routine I've ever done. I'll warn you that a few of the poses are very difficult ("the peacock"!). Unless you are exceptionally strong and flexible, don't bother to do those...or do part of them. I can't do all of these, but yoga isn't about outward appearance, it's about inward effort. Meanwhile try this once and see how you feel afterwards.

Sivananda 30 minute routine:
Sivananda shortened their long routine for the Kerala police.

More Indian Medicine:

Nasal rinse (Jala neti). 
This doesn't mention gently sucking the salt water from your nose to spit it out your mouth. This is very effective, and rinsing mucus membranes with salt water toughens them. You don't need to be sick to do this, nor do you need to limit the number of times you can do it daily.

Pranayama (breathing exercises that are also part of the Sivananda Yoga routine):

...and finally:

The Coronavirus Blues
(c) by Stan Fong

It’s shelter in place,
Can’t touch my face.
Tryin’ to stay occupied,
Realized my TV died.
I got the Corona virus blues.
Oh, I’ve got the Coronavirus blues
And if you tell me you’re feeling sick,
Social isolation is the trick.

I just ran out of toilet paper.
I went to the store by myself.
I looked for toilet paper just
To find an empty shelf.
I’ve got the Coronavirus Blues.
Oh I’ve the Coronavirus Blues.
And if your feeling ill,
Stay 6 ft. away if you will.

Still tryin’ to stay busy.
I’m thinking so hard I’m dizzy.
Cleaning the house like June Cleaver,
I still have a bad case of cabin fever.
I’ve got the Coronavirus Blues.
Oh I’ve got the Coronavirus Blues.
And if you’re gonna sneeze into the air,
Make sure far away enough so I don’t care.

Reading your Facebook postings
Getting through this time.
I’m hoping you and yours
Will all be fine.
I’ve got the Coronavirus Blues.
Oh, I’ve got the Coronavirus Blues.
And if you wanna get out for awhile
Better go take a walk with a smile.

Meanwhile, the "Bee Gees" do "Stayin' Inside"



...and best wishes to stay healthy!

Sunday, March 29, 2020

How Bernie Sold Us Out Over the Stimulus Bill

Stoller talks to Jimmy Dore, saying he is very unhappy that Bernie Sanders didn't do more to organize opposition to the gigantic coronavirus bailout bill. He calls him self-indulgent, and a paper tiger (or words to that effect), and expresses his disappointment that progressives are not better at organizing resistance to the exploiters and monopolies in societies. As a former congressional staffer, Stoller is certainly knowledgeable, too.

This echoes a previous Populist Moment (the title of Lawrence Goodwyn's book about post-Civil War America). Then, debt peonage was widespread, and the Farmers' Alliance and the People's Party formed to address the incredibly abusive commercial environment for the bulk of this population. We got lots of legislation out of this, too, including the Federal Reserve (reviving the central bank), regulations about transportation abuse (farmers were extorted to take less for their crops or they couldn't use rail transport before this), farm coops, and even the Bank of North Dakota. Nevertheless, the presidential candidate representing this populist movement--William Jennings Bryan--subtlely betrayed his constituents, and even though he was an inspiring speaker--his "Cross of Gold" address still is famous--lost every time he ran.

Who says history doesn't repeat, or at least rhyme?

Saturday, March 28, 2020

COVID-19 News

Green Jobs Are the Answer to the Coronavirus Recession
[New Republic, Naked Capitalism 3-19-20]
Franklin Roosevelt used the Public Works Administration, Civilian Conservation Corps and Works Progress Administration, so that the federal government directly hired millions of people to give them a steady paycheck. Today, the federal government should be hiring millions of people and begin teaching them how to care for people that are ill with COVID19, or how to manufacture medical equipment, or how to operate emergency food distribution.


Why is there no discussion of the federal government building new emergency hospitals, or building new manufacturing plants to make ventilators, face masks, and other medical equipment? Why is there no discussion of the federal government seizing control of any drug company or medical device manufacturer or producer or seller of handiwipes that tries to take advantage of this crisis to price gouge? Because people have been indoctrinated with the idea that such a direct government role in the economy is bad. What we’re about to find out is, that idea is what’s bad. Another example of how our unquestioned economic ideology limits our options.

...

This Slate article documents a number of the changes which have been made just in America, like how for people being thrown in jail for minor offenses, “San Antonio is one of many jurisdictions to announce that, to keep jails from being crowded with sick citizens, they’ll stop doing that. Why were they doing it in the first place?” Or how “Trump has instructed government agencies who administer loans to waive interest accrual for the duration of the crisis. But why on earth is our government charging its own citizens interest anyway?”

...

Sunday, March 22, 2020

The Fairness Insanity

When Micheal Hudson advises a debt jubilee as a remedy for our economic troubles in nakedcapitalism.com, one commenter says this:



Stadist
Where’s the justice in that? I have been living frugally and avoiding debt. So essentially I would (and should?) lose out because I was not willing to join the debt-fuelled spending and bubble creation?

Stadist succinctly states an all-too-human reaction: any debt forgiveness is not just. It's not fair that those who behaved well, staying out of debt, get no special accommodation, while the (profligate, lazy, incompetent, etc.) debtors get the bailout.

The demand for fairness and/or balance haunts humanity throughout its history. "An eye for an eye and a tooth for a tooth" is the human notion of justice. It's almost economic in its balance. This is in the Code of Hammurabi, and predates its repetition in Leviticus.

Yet, as Gandhi used to say "An eye for an eye makes the whole world blind." So fairness can lead us to cut of our noses to spite our faces. In fact I've read about one man declining treatment even though he was eligible for Medicare to cure what ailed him. Why? Because some of the undeserving might get Medicare too. Eminently fair, but at what cost!

And it turns out "fairness" as we conceive It is just part of a larger narrative in which we calculate our just desserts for our actions and is part of a very old conversation that plagued Jesus, for one example.  Jesus condemned the Pharisees for their "salvation by works" approach to good behavior ("Salvation by grace [gift]" is orthodox Christianity).

Taking credit for works let the Pharisees justify their social position, but it also encouraged arrogance and trivialized genuine fairness or justice. Jesus condemned the Pharisees for debating about whether to tithe kitchen herbs while ignoring larger matters. "Straining at a gnat while swallowing a camel" is the description he uses (Matthew 23).

Following the rules as a standard for deserving good things, while a natural inclination, does not necessarily lead to sensible conclusions, or even better behavior, either. For example, those who are wealthy were often "born on third base," but just as often want to act as though they hit a triple. Having good things, even as a birthright, does not mean they were deserved. After all, did you deserve your state of health when you were born?

The world's religious traditions often counsel getting outside the standard narrative we use to guide our path in this world, including our sense of fairness. Meditation is one way to step outside such narratives.

To get their followers to think outside the box, the Zen Buddhists have "koans"...riddles that are nonsense in conventional terms. "What is the sound of one hand clapping?" is one example. Or "What color is the wind?" Or "Not that! Not that!" (and believe me, it's not "Not that!").

In the spirit of koans, Jesus had parables about how the undeserving were rewarded. Perhaps the most famous is the prodigal son. The good brother, who stayed home, followed the rules, and didn't squander his fortune on partying didn't get the feast, the profligate prodigal did. In another parable, the workmen who toiled in the vineyard all day got the same pay as those who worked only the last bit of the day.

The message: compassion does not respect fairness. Be compassionate.

I'll add that fairness is among the weakest links in the human software we use to navigate our path in this world. There are other weak links too. For example refined sugar never triggers the "I'm full" sensation when you consume it. Never! You can suck on "Big Gulp" drinks all day and never feel the moment you have consumed too many calories--and the soda companies take advantage of that.

Sugar takes advantage of something called "supernormal stimulus." Humans and other species have bottomless pits of tolerance for these things. Apparently peahens are so intoxicated by the peacock's large tail feather display that they will cozy up to artificial displays that are much larger than real birds can produce, even when real peacocks are present.

One might even say this supernormal toleration extends to all fo the seven deadly "sins" (pride, wrath, greed, gluttony, envy, sloth, lust), and forms one of the foundations of addictive behavior. So...can we have too much "fairness," or "justice"? Perhaps.

In its pursuit of "fairness," the U.S. currently incarcerates more people than any other nation. This is true in absolute or per-capita numbers. Per-capita, the U.S. incarcerates five times the world average, roughly seven times more than the demographically identical Canadians. So is Canadian crime much higher than U.S. crime? No. About the same. If fairness worked in this instance, Canadians would be overrun with criminals.

But doesn't incarceration at least "scare addicts straight." No. Medical treatment ("rehab") has far better outcomes, and is about one seventh as expensive as incarceration.

Criminalizing things does not solve crimes, either. Roughly 80% of crime in the U.S. is unsolved. It's better, cheaper, and more effective to make a sympathetic society. That's the point of the social safety nets.

Yet when it comes to spending money, social safety nets that might make society more sympathetic are the first proposed for cuts. Why? "Labor discipline." Draconian "justice" reminds people that they had better take those crappy jobs, or suffer the indignities of poverty, perhaps even homelessness or starvation. And if you're extra ornery, we'll incarcerate you.

So that's the story of fairness. Like most superstimuli, fairness is appealing, even attractive, just as the ancient portrait of evil describes. Lucifer was the most beautiful of angels. Satan was the father of lies, so deception is the default. Evil doesn't appear as some little red demon with a pitchfork. It's far more likely to be a respectable thought ("fairness!") or a respected member of the community, say a priest with a taste for little boys or girls. Evil is not repulsive. It's seductive.

We won't get out of our current social situation until enough of the human race realizes that.

Saturday, March 14, 2020

Hospital Bed Count


Thursday, March 12, 2020

The Last Heterodox Economics Class


CSUS Renaissance has canceled what would be the last class of Heterodox Economics (Modern Money Theory, or MMT), and just about all their other activities, at least for the time being. Some good news: heat, like Sacramento's apparently interferes with the corona virus...so we have summer to look forward to.

What follows is the presentation for that last class.

In previous classes, we learned that sovereign, fiat currency creators with a floating exchange rate are not fiscally constrained. Theoretically, [hyper]inflation might constrain such money creators, but hyperinflation historically originates with shortages rather than central banks printing too much currency. This is often true even for milder inflationary episodes; the U.S. inflation of the '70s began after oil shortages.

MMT also reminds us that your bank account is your asset, but to the bank, it's a liability. That's more double-entry bookkeeping than economics, really. Checks essentially assign a portion of the bank's liability to the payee.

Dollars are just checks drawn on the Federal Reserve ("The Fed," our central bank) made out to cash in fixed amounts, and they appear on the Fed's books as a liability. Dollars, not just bonds or T-Bills, are part of national 'debt.' Reducing that debt would impair the dollar financial assets, or savings, of the economy. Reducing national 'debt' significantly always lead to waves of asset forfeitures and foreclosures. So the Clinton surplus was followed by the Great Recession, in which eight million people lost their homes. The Hoover surplus of 1929 was followed by the Great Depression. When Andrew Jackson's administration paid off all national 'debt' in 1835 we got the Panic of 1837.

If dollars are really IOUs, assigning the Fed's liability, what are we owed for our dollars? Answer: A dollar's worth of relief from taxes. MMT economists say "taxes drive money," making it valuable.

However, tax revenue does not provision government programs. Ask yourself: Where would people get the money to pay taxes if government didn't spend the dollars out into the economy first. A monetary sovereign government with a fiat currency and a floating exchange rate doesn't have to wait for tax revenue to spend; in fact it can't, it must spend before it can expect dollars to return to it in tax revenue.

Since the U.S. makes a fiat currency, has a floating exchange rate, and is a monetary sovereign, Social Security, or any other government program, won't "run out" of money any more than the scorekeeper at the ballgame can run out of points. You may have heard Trump is entertaining the idea of a payroll tax reduction. If conventional, orthodox economics explanations win the "debate," this will be an excuse for an entirely unnecessary move to cut benefits--and even Trump's "opponents" are concerned the U.S. will run out of money. Just remember: taxes do not provision federal government programs, and you'll accept no excuses.

Ralph Nader reports conversation with his father in which he was trying to persuade his father to promote a third party. His father replied: "I'd settle for a second." As long as the "debate" is between two sides that essentially agree taxes pay for federal programs, the outcome is certain: austerity.

So...joining the hue and cry to reduce national 'debt' is roughly like joining a mob confronting your bank manager to demand that he reduce the bank's debt (i.e. the size of your account). It's not very sensible, yet it's promoted with quasi-religious devotion all over the media landscape. It's supposedly "Fiscal Responsibility" and it excuses all kinds of cutbacks.

MMT's description of (private) banking points out that banks are not constrained by deposits when they make loans. They are not, as orthodox economics says, financial intermediaries between patient and impatient consumers--savers and borrowers, respectively. The Bank of England published a report validating the MMT description, too. When banks extend credit with loans they create deposits, in effect creating money.

By permitting credit creation from private banks, the Fed outsources a large part of currency production. That this is so also makes obvious how the Fed must regulate banks.  Among other things, if they were unregulated, banks might issue money to inflate the value of their own stock, entering into the realm of Ponzi capitalism.

Here's a specific example of a bank creating money with a loan: When a home buyer borrows to buy a house, the IOU (the note) the buyer gives the lender lets the lender open a checking account for the amount borrowed, creating the money. Opening a checking account is a computer transaction, and the bank simply types an amount in its bookkeeping record.

Then the buyer writes a check to the house seller--actually to the title company, who passes the check on after deducting expenses associated with the sale--and buys the house. If the seller banks at the same bank, the bank's computers move the balance from the buyer's checking account to the seller's when the seller cashes the check.

The checking account is the bank's liability, while the IOU (note) is the bank's asset (vice-versa for the buyer). Notice that this loan transaction never mentions the depositors' bank's deposits, or the bank reserves on deposit with the Fed.

If the seller banks elsewhere, then the Fed adjusts balances between banks, lending reserves to whichever bank comes up short (and meets the Fed's regulatory/underwriting standards). So banks are not financial intermediaries, and government spending doesn't "crowd out" alternative, private sector financing.

About recent news:

To me, this class is about practical solutions to down-to-earth practical problems. It is not a discussion of abstract principles that have no current application. One prominent feature of orthodox economics is the way it justifies austerity by asserting government spending "crowds out" financing or resources otherwise available to the private sector. Now, with the coronavirus problem, we can see things promoting austerity produces. For example: Trump fired the CDC pandemic team to “save money.”...as if the Fed could actually run out of dollars.


What was the stock exchange's reaction to such policies? Answer: the market downturn triggered a down-limit halt to trading for the first time in two decades.

(From here): “The US is still in Keystone Kops mode. We don’t have remotely enough coronavirus tests being done. We have no idea when we will have enough test kits ready. No one is even talking about how to implement a system like the drive by tests in South Korea which is not only efficient but even more important, greatly reduces risks to patients and doctors versus having to show up in a waiting room.”

“The long-term outlook is now of drawn-out deflationary stagnation. We can see this from another amazing development — the drop in the 30-year yield to a negative level in real terms. In other words, its yield is less than the average inflation rate that can be derived from the inflation-linked bond market. Nothing like this has ever happened before."

Orthodox, neoclassical economics also promotes monetarist (interest rate) solutions to such problems, rather than the fiscal solutions (spending money) recommended by MMT--although even spending money is not going to instantly reconstitute impaired global supply chains, or instantly produce coronavirus test kits.

Government's monetarist interest manipulations are trying to encourage the market to keep bond prices high (meaning lower interest rates), and make plenty of reserves available to banks. This saves the financial sector, but does precious little to make people healthier. Banks who have lots of reserves will not make good borrowers appear. It's more like "pushing a  string"--an ineffective solution.

These guys appear to actually believe the symbols of wealth (dollars) are actual wealth (real options). Perhaps they think it's OK to risk lives because people can take those dollars with them, post-mortem. You may remember Reverend Ike, a southern preacher of the gospel of prosperity, who told his television audience that he would guarantee they could take 10% of any donations with them when they died.

Meanwhile, in practical terms, the U.S. is in unprecedented times, and the policies recommended by orthodox, conventional economics will not likely solve these problems.

Now to resume the class powerpoint with a discussion of public banking.

[Slide 58]

Public Banking


What could we do with the money if a public bank made more for … the public realm?

An estimated 97% of our money comes from banks extending credit. Public Banks could make money for entities that are otherwise currency users (rather than currency creators).

This could conserve local resources--the cost of infrastructure is typically half financing--and recycle money into worthy local projects that do not offer the private profit private banks demand. Some examples:

  • Infrastructure: half the cost of large projects (Bay Bridge, etc.) is financing.
  • Laguna West - Transit-Oriented Development crippled by restricted lending
  • Housing First (Homes for the homeless)
  • Renewables for Public Offices
  • World War II - 50% of the economy. Green New Deal - 5% of the economy.

Note: MMT founder, Warren Mosler, is not enthusiastic about public banks - they are not a panacea
___

Now that we know banks can create money to lend, why not employ them for public purpose? There's a long history of doing just that in the U.S. FDR used Herbert Hoover's Reconstruction Finance Corporation (RFC) to fund infrastructure investments like the Tennessee Valley Authority, and the first Bay Bridge. Unfortunately, Eisenhower terminated the RFC, and even public works projects like the Bay Bridge earthquake retrofit are currently underwritten by private banks--in the case of the Bay Bridge, and the Kings' stadium subsidy, both were underwritten  by Goldman Sachs.

The state of North Dakota has had a state bank for more than a century. It helped the state weather the Global Financial Crisis in much better shape than many others. Its profits contribute to the North Dakota budget, and its recent rate of profit exceed even Goldman Sachs'.

The public realm, potentially financed by public banks, has been under attack for generations now, so such financing might help it recover. Even the design of our cities demonstrates this. Suburbia omits public squares now, substituting private malls for the gathering places that once dignfied our landscape. Parks used to be important, central properties. Now the suburbs puts them in leftover floodplain. See McKinley Park, the most valuable (per square foot) real estate in the region that reminds us of the power of the public realm to create value.

Developer Phil Angiledes courageously attempted to duplicate the success of that McKinley Park neighborhood with his Laguna West development. I say "courageous" because he already had the entitlements to develop conventional suburban sprawl when he applied to change the design--a big risk.

Pedestrian-friendly, mixed use (commerce and offices among the residences) neighborhoods like Laguna West require enough people to patronize neighborhood commerce and transit, otherwise those things are not economically viable. Thanks to (private) bank underwriting restrictions at the time, builders in Laguna West could not get construction loans to build the apartments that appeared in the original design, and were forced to build lower-density housing. So Laguna West remains a half-baked attempt at reviving traditional neighborhood design like McKinley Park, with not quite enough people to make neighborhood commerce, transit and offices thrive economically.

Land use is also an important part of transit success. Cities that stress the public realm, providing usable public sidewalks encourage the pedestrian patrons of transit to wak to the stops. Suburbia often has inadequate, interrupted sidewalks and wide intersections that discourage pedestrians from even crossing the street, much less going to the bus stop. (You can read more about this, and see illustrations of suburb's transit here.)

In addition to sidewalk design, density counts. A study of East Bay neighborhoods says 11 dwelling units per acre (a little more than duplexes) is the minimum residential density for economically successful transit or neighborhood commerce. Sacramento's sprawl forecloses the possibility of viable transit when it is (as typical) less compact.

One bit of good news: California now requires "Complete Streets" for new development, and requires development studies for planning that focus on vehicle miles traveled, rather than the previous objective: smooth traffic flow. The "Complete" street design should give pedestrians better access to whatever is within a walk. Mixed use would provide destinations. Studies disclose neighborhoods with both pedestrian friendly streets and mixed use typically cut vehicle miles traveled in half compared to conventional suburban development ("sprawl").


The Housing First principles discovered that police and emergency room time is actually more expensive than providing the homeless with shelter. California actually does have a public infrastructure bank, and could fund homeless solutions, with the right kind of underwriting.

After hearing about Housing First, I called the California infrastructure bank to see whether they would make loans based on savings in police and emergency room time. They replied that their underwriting would not let them make loans based on savings. Their board already turned down public agencies' requests to build solar over their parking based on the utility savings. For some reason, the California Infrastructure bank could not underwrite the Bay Bridge revamp, so Goldman Sachs got that loan, and Wall Street got the interest.


Public banks could solve Laguna West's apartment loan problem, provide the funding for Housing First, and revitalize the public realm. Such a bank could even provide lines of credit that would eliminate the need for the reserves the state keeps for emergencies.

With public banking, the interest expense for infrastructure spending might even be recycled rather than being sent to Wall Street. Currently several states throughout the U.S. and several communities throughout California are planning to start public banks.

As far as I know, no Sacramento public bank is in the works. In fact, in my experience, local public meetings seldom mention costs and consequences when requesting public input about policy options, so the critical "follow the money" step remains to be taken.


[Slide 59]

Course Quiz

1. Just as bank’s debt is the same as the assets of the depositors, so National ‘Debt’ is … [a] Zero [b] a bad thing [c] the dollar financial assets of the population.
2. How about getting rid of FICA taxes altogether? Would that impair government’s ability to pay Social Security? T/F
3. Would a job guarantee cause inflation? Deflation? No change?
4. Is the money printing the source of inflation, or does inflation typically stem from some shortage?

(Note: the U.S. economy is roughly at 77.5% of capacity - says our central bank, the Federal Reserve)

5. If Yoshi wants to triple the purchases of dog toys, and the resources are there to fulfill that increased demand, would Yoshiland have to raise taxes?
6. How could we pay for student debt forgiveness, or Medicare for all?
7. Is Nancy Pelosi’s “PayGo” policy (all new programs require more taxes) founded on real concerns, or is it misdirection?
8. Who profits from austerity? (Hint: see the illustration in the top right corner of this slide)
9. If private debts inevitably exceed the real economy’s means of payment, how should we treat debtors who can’t pay?
(Debt peonage? Bankruptcy? Jubilees? Something else? - and which answer impairs the economy least?)
10. The government decides to reduce national debt. Is it a good time to invest in the stock market?

Answers:
1. c,
2. F,
3. No inflation. Who else is bidding up the price of the unemployed? By definition no one.
4. Inflation typically originates with a shortage. Immediately after peak oil production in 1971 the Arabs used the "oil weapon" and reduced their production (1973), and the U.S. was unable to produce its way out of the shortfall. The 1971 price of oil: $1.75/bbl. It went all the way to $42/bbl in 1982--about the high range of current oil prices, after you adjust for inflation. In the '80s, the price of oil came down as Alaska's North Slope production came online.
5. No.
6. A trick question: How would we pay for a healthcare system half as expensive as what we're already paying? As for student debt: Taxes are unnecessary even when student debt is what needs to be paid. Just removing the student loan liability from the public (and the asset from government) would increase national 'debt,' but not bring it to even approximately the level of Japanese debt's ratio to its GDP.
7. Misdirection
8. Vultures can pick up assets on the cheap!
9. Jubilees impair the economy least. Note: Modern debt jubilees were declared for the defeated Axis nations after World War II. Unfortunately, the Allies also kept the debts in place for in our allies in Vietnam...which is why the Vietnamese continued to fight after the U.S. did not keep its treaty obligation to hold a plebiscite to unify the country.
   Incidentally, Warren Mosler (an MMT founder) consults with the Italian government, in fact he has filled stadiums in Italy, and this is today's Reuters headline: Payments on mortgages to be suspended across Italy after coronavirus outbreak. Coincidence?
10. No! Any solutions above are all going to require larger national debt, no matter if they are less-than-optimum solutions. Incidentally, Trump is entertaining a payroll tax cut (finally!). The downside: orthodox economics may provide the excuse that this would make Social Security less financially viable, even though we know MMT would strongly deny that.

[Slide 60]

Changing the Narrative

Make no mistake, maintaining narrative control is the single highest priority of the establishment. Not keeping taxes down, not keeping Bernie out of office, not even keeping the wars going. Without narrative control, their entire empire will crumble. Never lose sight of this….
If you can control what happens, you’ll have power until the public gets sick of your bullshit and removes you. If you can control what the public thinks about what happens, you’ll have
power forever
- Caitlin Johnstone.

This statement makes sense of the extremely harsh treatment for those who interrupt the narrative like Julian Assange and Chelsea Manning.


George Monbiot's TED talk (above) covers this very well, and offers a positive alternative narrative.

To me, MMT is critical path information if we want to understand what is going on, and perhaps revise the narrative to get effective public policy to address systemic problems. Remember the 10 dogs sent to retrieve only 9 bones? Individual action is at least limited in providing solutions to systemic problems, if not entirely ineffective.

We cannot solve many of society's systemic problems--and public health is one--without collective action. The opponents of collective action are spending their time and energy opposing collective action, and certainly MMT. (See MMT is a Political Problem for a nice summary). In fact, the Kochs explicitly reject any "collectivism" (their word).

The alternative they offer is the libertarian philosophy that only individuals can do anything, and it's "every man for himself." They may even deny a collective even exists. Margaret Thatcher once said "There is no such thing as 'society,' only individuals and families." Roughly like saying you have no body, only cells and organs. My bet is that the Kochs do not even sew their own clothes. So...denial is not just a river in Egypt.

Libertarians like to say they want as little regulation and government meddling in markets as possible. All true...until it comes to property rights. Then strict enforcement of the absolute rights of property owners is what libertarians demand. The hundreds of millions the Kochs have paid in EPA fines testifies to their belief that they can dump anything toxic on their refinery property, even if it floats downstream, or seeps into the water table. It's their property, so they have the right!

Notice how the myth that barter evolved into money and credit economies plays into this narrative, too. No state is necessary when Robinson Crusoe and Friday managed their "market." Historically, however, states are essential for credit, money and economic markets, even from the period of prehistory that predates writing the temple/palace complex managed credit, and those clay tablets the archaeologists dug up validate that. Historically, there are plenty of non-state societies, but they never have economic markets.

So when it comes ot markets, government isn't "meddling"-- although there's certainly room for disagreement about how much and what kind of regulation it must do. States are essential creators and managers of markets, if only to regulate what constitutes counterfeit currency, and what kind of contracts are enforceable.

How do states make markets? Suppose King Yoshi wants to employ a thousand soldiers. Housing, feeding, training, arming etc. all these men is an enormous logistical problem. To do this, and create a market, King Yoshi pays them in $Yoshibucks, then taxes the entire population--payable only in $Yoshibucks. Now people try to serve the needs of the soldiers so they can get the means to pay the taxes, making a market that serves both soldiers and themselves.

Historically, there has never been a libertarian state or even a libertarian market, but the recent invention of the "Dark Internet" makes a virtual libertarian market possible. The Dark Internet does this by encrypting all communication so thoroughly no one can identify parties to a transaction. As you might imagine, criminals gravitated to buying and selling on the Dark Internet. Apparently, you could buy anything from drugs to assassinations there.

Also, unsurprisingly, the criminals would cheat each other, paying with counterfeit, or selling shoddy goods. So one inevitable libertarian outcome was the emergence of websites with "brands" who reassured customers they sold goods that were genuine. One such website was "The Silk Road" run by Ross Ulbricht (AKA "Dread Pirate Roberts"). The FBI arrested Ulbricht for attempting to purchase the assassination of a supplier who cheated him. Before that, he was apparently making $40 million a year. Ulbricht said his belief in libertarianism permitted this kind of enterprise, and his $40 million  demonstrated that he was doing the right thing.

To me, this story means libertarianism inevitably leads to a kind of feudalism. The King, or Ulbricht, or even Don Corleone (the Godfather), doesn't require due process to execute someone who offends them. It's primitive, vengeful, and, given how even our jury trials have jailed innocent men, far more prone to error. (See this for the story of Ulbricht and the Dark Internet.)

OK, that's enough for now. Thanks for attending. The class has taught me something too. I hope it awakened some interest in some less-publicized public policy options, and has provided you with an alterantive narrative about how money can serve mankind, rather than the vice-versa.

Thomas Frank on the Election: The Elites Had It Coming

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