As a partner of Warren Buffet, Munger has been a spectacular success, out-performing market averages often. He points out the following are flaws in typical economics (from talk nine in Poor Charlie's Almanack) and MBA thinking:
1. Fatal Unconnectedness, leading to man-with-a-hammer syndrome, often causing overweighting what can be counted.
2. Failure to follow the fundamental full-attribution ethos of hard science.
3. Physics Envy (hard form efficient markets theory - too much precision in physics-like formulae)
4. Too much emphasis on macroeconomics (the fallacy of composition fools even Munger, or he's trying to distract from systemic problems)
5. Too little synthesis (with other disciplines. Raising prices can sometimes psychologically convince buyers the product is better..Also: conventional thinking omits higher commissions, in effect bribery!)
"Why did Max Planck, one of the smartest people who ever lived, give up on economics? Planck's answer is "It's too hard. The best solution you can get is messy and uncertain."
6. Extreme and Counterproductive psychological ignorance.
7. Too little attention to second and higher order effects. (consequences have consequences, economics ignores gaming the system[s])
8. Not enough attention to the concept of febezzlement (functional equivalent of embezzlement --leads to false feelings of prosperty)
9. Not enough attention to virtue and vice effects - "The cash register did more for human morality than the Congregational Church....guilt, dervied from religion, has been a huge driver of a reliability ethos, which has been very helpful to economic outcomes for man...to function best, morality should sometimes a pear unfair, like most worldly ougcomes. The craving for perfect fairness causes a lot of terrible problems in system functions."
10. Not enough attention to embedded Ponzi schemes
"It's not bringing in the new ideas that's so hard. It's getting rid of the old ones." - Keynes
No comments:
Post a Comment
One of the objects if this blog is to elevate civil discourse. Please do your part by presenting arguments rather than attacks or unfounded accusations.