Wednesday, November 6, 2024

Understanding The Election

 



 




 





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"Never underestimate Joe [Biden]'s ability to f**k things up" - Barack Obama. At first glance, I took Obama's statement to be a kind of insult. Now I think it's praise for Biden's abilities as a "defender" to disrupt the "offense" of federal programs that help the poor.

...also worth remembering: "The Biden—now Harris—campaign committee raised $997.2 million and Trump’s campaign committee raised $388 million in total between Jan. 2023 and Oct. 16, 2024, the most recent date for which Federal Election Commission filings are available, ending with $118 million and $36.2 million in cash on hand, respectively." - Forbes

If your calculator is not handy, that means the Harris campaign raised a little more than two-and-a-half times the Trump campaign, and spent slightly more than that two-and-a-half times what the Trump campaign spent, yet lost decisively, despite the advantages of incumbency and more money. (Note: this doesn't include spending outside the campaigns...which hit record levels)

Update #1:



 

 Post election prediction: D's will blame everyone from the Russians, to the electorate, to aliens from Mars, but will never accept responsibility for the disastrous policies that put them so far in the hole. More validation that it's difficult to get someone to understand something if their paycheck depends on them not understanding.

Update #2: Chris Hedges take on the American Culture of Despair that gave us Trump.

Update #3: Democrats lose...on purpose...[posted 10 months ago].

 
The idea that American elections are as staged as professional wrestling matches, with predetermined outcomes means that the US doesn't have elections, it has election theater. It's like the TSA that's supposed to keep us safe in air travel but missed 19 of the 20 (fake) bombs sent through airport security. We don't have security, we have security theater. It's not a big surprise, at least in retrospect, that someone who thoroughly understands pro wrestling like Trump should emerge victorious.
 
Update #4: (From Michael Roberts' blog, thenextrecession.wordpress.com...one of the best analyses of the composition of voting in the recent presidential election)
 
 
In line with Update #3, "Harris lost the election heavily because the Democrats campaigned on the identity issues that concerned voters much less, while Trump campaigned on what mattered most to Americans in 2024: inflation, the cost of living and what is perceived as uncontrolled immigration.

"Three out of four Americans who said that inflation caused them and their family severe hardship in the last year voted for Trump. And as I have argued in previous posts, the perception that average American households have suffered a loss in living standards in the last four years is no myth, contrary to the views of mainstream economists.


"Between 2020-2023, real pretax income growth for the bottom 50% of income earners in the US was basically zero. Prices of goods and services are up over 20% since the end of the pandemic and for basic foodstuffs it is even higher. Moreover, the huge hike in interest rates by the Federal Reserve to ‘control’ inflation drove up mortgage rates, insurance premiums, car lease payment and credit card bills.

"Inflation and the drop in living standards for many Americans was blamed by sufficient numbers of voters on the Biden-Harris administration. As in many other countries, incumbent governments that presided over the post-pandemic period have been ousted. Indeed, it is the first time since the beginning of universal suffrage that all the incumbent parties in developed countries have lost vote share. The Democrats are the latest – Germany next.

"In 2020, Trump was the incumbent and was blamed for his disastrous handling of the COVID pandemic. But in 2024, the Biden-Harris administration has been blamed for the failure to deal with inflation and for not stopping immigration. Many Americans saw ‘uncontrolled immigration’ as causing a loss of jobs and rising crime – against all the evidence. Nevertheless, this irrational fear had traction, especially in small towns and rural areas where there are few immigrants visible.

"Biden and Harris crowed about a vibrant, healthy, low unemployment US economy, better than anywhere else. Sufficient American voters were not convinced of this message coming from the so-called ‘liberal elite’, given their own experience. They reckoned they were losing out because of high prices and costs, precarious jobs and uncontolled immigration that threatened their livelihoods, while the rich and educated in Wall Street and in mega hi-tech companies made billions.

"Of course, Trump won’t change any of that – on the contrary, his pals and financial backers are a bunch of rogue billionaires who look to gain yet more riches from cuts in taxes and deregulation of their activities.

"But elections are just a snapshot of public opinion at one moment – nothing stands still."


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