The idea of religious sentiment blessing a triumph like the Trump presidency is part of the Brave New World we’re entering. After all, hasn’t the divine blessed Donald with wealth, women and a commanding presence, never mind the votes of the evangelicals?
Why did Hillary lose?
Mainstream Press says:
I say:
1. She voted for the Iraq war, and actually rounded up other senators to do that.
2. She has deep connections (son-in-law deep!) to Wall St.
3. Grifting ($150 million since she and Bill left office) ultimately leaves a bad taste in the electorate’s mouth.
4. She’s definitely the candidate of the status quo, and large parts of the electorate do not feel respected, much less represented by that status quo (remember that Princeton study that exposes the U.S. as an oligarchy, not a democracy)
See below for a more comprehensive list.
On the plus side, the down-ballot items (Props 55, 57 and Measure G) supported by ACT look like they passed...as did Prop 59 (Money isn't speech, corporations aren't people)
Why Trump Won
by Ian Welsh
It’s 10:50 EST and as of right now, it looks like Trump will probably win. The Senate and the House will be Republican as well. Let’s lay this out.
Trump sold Hope, Clinton sold the status quo.
Trump’s motto was “make America Great Again”. Clinton’s said “America’s already great.” That told anyone who wasn’t doing well that Clinton was not their candidate.
Trump made the election about what he would do, Clinton made it about her.
“Make America Great Again” vs. “I’m with her.” Clinton’s entire campaign was predicated on “I deserve this, this is about me, you should identify with me.” Trump’s campaign was about what he would do for America and Americans.
Running Against Russia Was Foolish
It isn’t the cold war any more. A majority of Americans actually want better relations with Russia, not worse.
The Recovery Never Touched A Lot of People
And Clinton and Obama told those people they didn’t care about them. All this bullshit about the unemployment rate when the percentage of jobs available compared to the population never recovered and when only one year of Obama’s reign saw general increases in income.
Trump Ran Against Iraq
Clinton did not. He won against his fellow Republicans on this issue. Hillary wasn’t just a vote for Iraq, she was the Democratic Senator who rounded up other Senators.
The Greens Did Not Make the Difference In Florida
The polling I’m showing right now has them at .7%. That is less than Trump’s margin of victory. Johnson got 2.2%, but—Libertarians seem to take evenly from Republicans and Democrats with a slight nod to Republicans.
Third parties were not the difference. (Edited: 7:35 EST 09/11/16 to reflect Libertarian party being about an even split.)
This has been coming for years
Various people, myself included, were warning that a huge populist backlash was coming, and that in America, it would probably be right wing. As far back as the early 2000s. Others were warning of this in the 90s, or even the late 80s, because they saw the inequality data and knew where it leads.
Elites Have Taken Almost All the Gains for 36 Years
It’s just that simple. A lot of people have been left to rot for two generations now. The good jobs went away, they never came back, and yes, that was deliberate government policy. Neoliberal globalization was a choice, and it was a choice designed to destroy the future of many many people.
The DNC Chose the Worst Candidate
One thing the Wikileaks releases confirmed is that the DNC did try to make sure Clinton won the primary. They succeeded. Sanders, a left wing populist, consistently polled better against Trump than Clinton. He did best amongst Independents, exactly the swing voters that Democrats needed in order to win.
The DNC Tried To Get Trump As the Republican Candidate
They thought he would be weak. As it happens, he has outperformed recent Republican candidates significantly AND he has lifted Republican down-ticket candidates to victory.
Democrats Lost the Election and Trump Won It
Despite all the self-congratulatory blather, Trump ran a better campaign than Clinton. More positive and upbeat, with far better messaging. Democrats chose a weak candidate with a weak message.
Further Reading
I want to strongly encourage you to read these articles, which I wrote during the election, so they are not retrospective takes.
First, if you’re feeling depressed, down and so on, please read these articles.
The Philosophy of Decline and Collapse
Your Responsibility for the American Election
Second, on Trump’s Positive Messaging. (Yes, it was).
Trump Pushes Hope While Clinton Pushes Fear
Third, on Trump’s economic messaging.
Trumponomics
(Note, he may not follow it or execute well, but the message itself spoke to the fears and hopes of people who have actually lost the current economy.)
Fourth, on speaking to people’s actual experience of America.
The Logic of Trump
Fifth, Trump’s Convention Speech.
Despite what you were told, Trump’s speech was not insane.
Sixth, Clinton was no prize.
The Monstrousness of Hillary Clinton
Hillary Clinton is the worst type of leader (Guest Post by Hugh)
Final Comments
Let’s be clear, I don’t think Trump will be a good president. And Republicans controlling House, Senate and Supreme Court is bad.
There are, however, reasons why Clinton lost against Trump. Part of it is that she was always an awful candidate, with sky high negatives. Democrats knew this, and nominated her anyway, with Democratic operatives effectively cheating on her behalf.
Part of it is that despite his manifest weaknesses, Trump ran a more positive campaign with a better message, while Clinton ran campaign based entirely on fear and with a message that “everything is basically fine.”
I do look forward to Democrats who covered for Obama’s wars, assassinations, mass deportations (far worse than Bush’s) and brutal torture of whistle-blowers, suddenly opposing all those things again.
Unlike last time, I won’t think this means they actually have principles, but I’ll still take their support.
In the meantime, contrary to the hysteria, it is highly unlikely this is the end of the world. Food is still tasty, there is still love and beauty in the world, and unless you were expecting a job with the Clinton administration, nothing bad has happened to you yet.
Do not make future possible problems which may never happen, and which even if they do, are not here today, ruin your enjoyment or happiness today (or tomorrow, grieve tonight if necessary).
Why did Hillary lose?
Mainstream Press says:
- She’s a woman
- She’s not a bigot
- Email! It’s the email, I tell you!
I say:
1. She voted for the Iraq war, and actually rounded up other senators to do that.
2. She has deep connections (son-in-law deep!) to Wall St.
3. Grifting ($150 million since she and Bill left office) ultimately leaves a bad taste in the electorate’s mouth.
4. She’s definitely the candidate of the status quo, and large parts of the electorate do not feel respected, much less represented by that status quo (remember that Princeton study that exposes the U.S. as an oligarchy, not a democracy)
See below for a more comprehensive list.
On the plus side, the down-ballot items (Props 55, 57 and Measure G) supported by ACT look like they passed...as did Prop 59 (Money isn't speech, corporations aren't people)
Why Trump Won
by Ian Welsh
It’s 10:50 EST and as of right now, it looks like Trump will probably win. The Senate and the House will be Republican as well. Let’s lay this out.
Trump sold Hope, Clinton sold the status quo.
Trump’s motto was “make America Great Again”. Clinton’s said “America’s already great.” That told anyone who wasn’t doing well that Clinton was not their candidate.
Trump made the election about what he would do, Clinton made it about her.
“Make America Great Again” vs. “I’m with her.” Clinton’s entire campaign was predicated on “I deserve this, this is about me, you should identify with me.” Trump’s campaign was about what he would do for America and Americans.
Running Against Russia Was Foolish
It isn’t the cold war any more. A majority of Americans actually want better relations with Russia, not worse.
The Recovery Never Touched A Lot of People
And Clinton and Obama told those people they didn’t care about them. All this bullshit about the unemployment rate when the percentage of jobs available compared to the population never recovered and when only one year of Obama’s reign saw general increases in income.
Trump Ran Against Iraq
Clinton did not. He won against his fellow Republicans on this issue. Hillary wasn’t just a vote for Iraq, she was the Democratic Senator who rounded up other Senators.
The Greens Did Not Make the Difference In Florida
The polling I’m showing right now has them at .7%. That is less than Trump’s margin of victory. Johnson got 2.2%, but—Libertarians seem to take evenly from Republicans and Democrats with a slight nod to Republicans.
Third parties were not the difference. (Edited: 7:35 EST 09/11/16 to reflect Libertarian party being about an even split.)
This has been coming for years
Various people, myself included, were warning that a huge populist backlash was coming, and that in America, it would probably be right wing. As far back as the early 2000s. Others were warning of this in the 90s, or even the late 80s, because they saw the inequality data and knew where it leads.
Elites Have Taken Almost All the Gains for 36 Years
It’s just that simple. A lot of people have been left to rot for two generations now. The good jobs went away, they never came back, and yes, that was deliberate government policy. Neoliberal globalization was a choice, and it was a choice designed to destroy the future of many many people.
The DNC Chose the Worst Candidate
One thing the Wikileaks releases confirmed is that the DNC did try to make sure Clinton won the primary. They succeeded. Sanders, a left wing populist, consistently polled better against Trump than Clinton. He did best amongst Independents, exactly the swing voters that Democrats needed in order to win.
The DNC Tried To Get Trump As the Republican Candidate
They thought he would be weak. As it happens, he has outperformed recent Republican candidates significantly AND he has lifted Republican down-ticket candidates to victory.
Democrats Lost the Election and Trump Won It
Despite all the self-congratulatory blather, Trump ran a better campaign than Clinton. More positive and upbeat, with far better messaging. Democrats chose a weak candidate with a weak message.
Further Reading
I want to strongly encourage you to read these articles, which I wrote during the election, so they are not retrospective takes.
First, if you’re feeling depressed, down and so on, please read these articles.
The Philosophy of Decline and Collapse
Your Responsibility for the American Election
Second, on Trump’s Positive Messaging. (Yes, it was).
Trump Pushes Hope While Clinton Pushes Fear
Third, on Trump’s economic messaging.
Trumponomics
(Note, he may not follow it or execute well, but the message itself spoke to the fears and hopes of people who have actually lost the current economy.)
Fourth, on speaking to people’s actual experience of America.
The Logic of Trump
Fifth, Trump’s Convention Speech.
Despite what you were told, Trump’s speech was not insane.
Sixth, Clinton was no prize.
The Monstrousness of Hillary Clinton
Hillary Clinton is the worst type of leader (Guest Post by Hugh)
Final Comments
Let’s be clear, I don’t think Trump will be a good president. And Republicans controlling House, Senate and Supreme Court is bad.
There are, however, reasons why Clinton lost against Trump. Part of it is that she was always an awful candidate, with sky high negatives. Democrats knew this, and nominated her anyway, with Democratic operatives effectively cheating on her behalf.
Part of it is that despite his manifest weaknesses, Trump ran a more positive campaign with a better message, while Clinton ran campaign based entirely on fear and with a message that “everything is basically fine.”
I do look forward to Democrats who covered for Obama’s wars, assassinations, mass deportations (far worse than Bush’s) and brutal torture of whistle-blowers, suddenly opposing all those things again.
Unlike last time, I won’t think this means they actually have principles, but I’ll still take their support.
In the meantime, contrary to the hysteria, it is highly unlikely this is the end of the world. Food is still tasty, there is still love and beauty in the world, and unless you were expecting a job with the Clinton administration, nothing bad has happened to you yet.
Do not make future possible problems which may never happen, and which even if they do, are not here today, ruin your enjoyment or happiness today (or tomorrow, grieve tonight if necessary).
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